Source: Carrot Health COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Dashboard

Shelby and Knox counties are likely to have the most critical — and fatal — cases of coronavirus in Tennessee, according to simulations by Carrot Health.

The estimates are based on scientific research analyzed against the healthcare startup’s database of demographic and behavior data on every adult in the country.

Under Carrot Health’s simulations, 529,915 Tennesseans will be infected, or 10% of the total adult population. About 27,580 cases, or 5.2%, will become critical, resulting in 5,517 mortalities.

Here’s what the projections find for the five most affected counties:

See Carrot Health’s full Covid-19 Critical Infection Risk Dashboard here. Simulations can be adjusted based on critical infection and mortality rates.