See by how much Tennessee districts miss their ideal populations following census count
The U.S. Census Bureau late last week released population count data to be used for the once-a-decade redistricting process. The information arrived in a legacy format that requires some massaging to make usable for legislative consultants. But the City University of New York has already processed the numbers in the form of a national map.
We’ve teased out the Tennessee numbers to show how much variance current legislative districts have with the ideal population. State case law has established General Assembly seats can fall within plus or minus 5% of the average. The bigger the variance, the more districts will have to be shifted before next year’s election.
Here are the breakdowns for the Senate and House:
SENATE:
| District | Senator | Party | Counties | over/under |
| 29 | Akbari, Raumesh | D | Shelby (part) | -12% |
| 15 | Bailey, Paul | R | Bledsoe, Cumberland, Jackson, Overton, Putnam, White | 3.8% |
| 9 | Bell, Mike | R | Bradley (part), McMinn, Meigs, Monroe, Polk | -5.6% |
| 16 | Bowling, Janice | R | Coffee, Franklin, Grundy, Marion, Sequatchie, Van Buren, Warren | -1.6% |
| 7 | Briggs, Richard | R | Knox (part) | -1.8% |
| 20 | Campbell, Heidi | D | Davidson (part) | 6.7% |
| 3 | Crowe, Rusty | R | Carter (part), Washington, Unicoi | -6.5% |
| 10 | Gardenhire, Todd | R | Bradley (part), Hamilton (part) | -4.4% |
| 19 | Gilmore, Brenda | D | Davidson (part) | 8.6% |
| 18 | Haile, Ferrell | R | Davidson (part), Sumner, Trousdale | 13.8% |
| 28 | Hensley, Joey | R | Giles, Lawrence, Lewis, Maury, Perry, Wayne | 1.6% |
| 27 | Jackson, Ed | R | Madison, Crockett, Dyer, Lake, Lauderdale | -13.2% |
| 23 | Johnson, Jack | R | Williamson | 18.3% |
| 31 | Kelsey, Brian | R | Shelby (part) | -0.1% |
| 30 | Kyle, Sara | D | Shelby (part) | -10.3% |
| 4 | Lundberg, Jon | R | Carter (part), Johson, Sullivan | -10.4% |
| 6 | Massey, Becky Duncan | R | Knox (part) | -3% |
| 5 | McNally, Lt. Gov. Randy | R | Anderson, Knox (part), Loudon | -3.5% |
| 8 | Niceley, Frank | R | Claiborne, Grainger, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Union | -7.6% |
| 17 | Pody, Mark | R | Cannon, Clay, DeKalb, Macon, Smith, Wilson | 12.2% |
| 22 | Powers, Bill | R | Stewart, Houston, Montgomery | 15.6% |
| 14 | Reeves, Shane | R | Bedford, Lincoln, Marshall, Moore, Rutherford (part) | 4.2% |
| 25 | Roberts, Kerry | R | Cheatham, Dickson, Hickman, Humphreys, Robertson | 1.3% |
| 33 | Robinson, Katrina | D | Shelby (part) | -5.1% |
| 32 | Rose, Paul | R | Tipton, Shelby (part) | 0.6% |
| 1 | Southerland, Steve | R | Cocke, Greene, Hamblen, Sevier (part) | -7% |
| 24 | Stevens, John | R | Benton, Carroll, Gibson, Henry, Obion, and Weakle | -9% |
| 2 | Swann, Art | R | Blount, Sevier (part) | 0% |
| 26 | Walley, Page | R | Chester, Decatur, Fayette, Hardeman, Hardin, Haywood, Henderson, McNairy | -7.1% |
| 11 | Watson, Bo | R | Hamilton (part) | -1.4% |
| 13 | White, Dawn | R | Rutherford (part) | 19.1% |
| 12 | Yager, Ken | R | Campbell, Fentress, Morgan, Rhea, Roane, Pickett, Scott Counties | -8.4% |
| 21 | Yarbro, Jeff | D | Davidson (part) | 12% |
HOUSE
| District | Incumbent | Party | Counties | over/under |
| 7 | Alexander, Rebecca | R | Washington (part) | -5.2% |
| 37 | Baum, Charlie | R | Rutherford (part) | 15.1% |
| 51 | Beck, Bill | D | Davidson (part) | 7.9% |
| 46 | Boyd, Clark | R | Cannon, DeKalb (part), Wilson (part) | 14.7% |
| 47 | Bricken, Rush | R | Coffee, Warren (part) | 2.2% |
| 71 | Byrd, David | R | Hardin, Lawrence (part), Lewis, Wayne, | -10.3% |
| 32 | Calfee, Kent | R | Loudon (part), Roane (part) | -10.4% |
| 3 | Campbell, Scotty | R | Carter (part), Johnson, Sullivan (part) | -9.1% |
| 87 | Camper, Karen | D | Shelby (part) | -2.5% |
| 12 | Carr, Dale | R | Sevier (part) | -4.7% |
| 16 | Carringer, Michele | R | Knox (part) | -4.9% |
| 29 | Carter, Joan | R | Hamiton (part) | 15.1% |
| 63 | Casada, Glen | R | Williamson (part) | 42.9% |
| 64 | Cepicky, Scott | R | Maury (part) | 14.4% |
| 85 | Chism, Jesse | D | Shelby (part) | -3.3% |
| 55 | Clemmons, John Ray | D | Davidson (part) | 0.2% |
| 23 | Cochran, Mark | R | McMinn, Monroe (part) | -2.1% |
| 86 | Cooper, Barbara | D | Shelby (part) | -8.8% |
| 1 | Crawford, John | R | Sullivan (part) | -13.5% |
| 69 | Curcio, Michael | R | Dickson (part), Hickman, Maury (part) | 1.8% |
| 76 | Darby, Tandy | R | Carroll (part), Obion (part), Weakley | -15.9% |
| 54 | Dixie, Vincent | D | Davidson (part) | -5.1% |
| 70 | Doggett, Clay | R | Giles, Lawrence (part) | -3.2% |
| 10 | Eldridge, Rick | R | Hamblen | -7.6% |
| 11 | Faison, Jeremy | R | Cocke, Greene (part), Jefferson (part) | -10.6% |
| 17 | Farmer, Andrew | R | Jefferson (part), Sevier (part) | -3.1% |
| 56 | Freeman, Bob | D | Davidson (part) | 1.5% |
| 94 | Gant, Ron | R | Hardeman (part), Fayette, McNairy | 1% |
| 45 | Garrett, Johnny | R | Sumner (part) | 10.4% |
| 97 | Gillespie, John | R | Shelby (part) | 0.5% |
| 75 | Griffey, Bruce | R | Benton, Henry, Stewart | -11.6% |
| 77 | Grills, Rusty | R | Dyer, Lake, Obion (part) | -10.4% |
| 28 | Hakeem, Yusuf | D | Hamiton (part) | -2.1% |
| 79 | Halford, Curtis | R | Carroll (part), Gibson | -6.8% |
| 24 | Hall, Mark | R | Bradley (part) | 0.4% |
| 93 | Hardaway, G. A. | D | Shelby (part) | -8.8% |
| 90 | Harris, Torrey C. | D | Shelby (part) | -15.3% |
| 72 | Haston, Kirk | R | Chester, Decatur, Henderson, Perry | -6.9% |
| 5 | Hawk, David | R | Greene (part) | -10.3% |
| 27 | Hazlewood, Patsy | R | Hamilton (part) | 1.6% |
| 30 | Helton, Esther | R | Hamilton (part) | 6.9% |
| 9 | Hicks, Gary | R | Washington (part) | -9.2% |
| 6 | Hicks, Tim | R | washington | -4.3% |
| 67 | Hodges, Jason | D | Montgomery (part) | 15.2% |
| 4 | Holsclaw, John | R | Carter (part), Unicoi | -8.7% |
| 22 | Howell, Dan | R | Bradley (part), Meigs, Polk | -1.4% |
| 2 | Hulsey, Bud | R | Sullivan (part) | -10% |
| 82 | Hurt, Chris | R | Crockett, Haywood, Lauderdale | -18.5% |
| 60 | Jernigan, Darren | D | Davidson (part) | -0.5% |
| 68 | Johnson, Curtis | R | Montgomery (part) | 30.5% |
| 13 | Johnson, Gloria | D | Knox (part) | -5.1% |
| 38 | Keisling, Kelly | R | Clay, Fentress (part), Macon, Pickett, Scott | -2.3% |
| 66 | Kumar, Sabi | R | Robertson | 4.3% |
| 89 | Lafferty, Justin | R | Knox (part) | 8.1% |
| 91 | Lamar, London | D | Shelby (part) | -16.7% |
| 44 | Lamberth, William | R | Sumner (part) | 22.6% |
| 99 | Leatherwood, Tom | R | Shelby (part) | 1.5% |
| 78 | Littleton, Mary | R | Cheatham, Dickson (part) | 0.8% |
| 58 | Love, Harold | D | Davidson (part) | 5.8% |
| 57 | Lynn, Susan | R | Wilson (part) | 27% |
| 18 | Mannis, Eddie | R | Knox (part) | -2.5% |
| 62 | Marsh, Pat | R | Bedford, Lincoln (part) | -2.1% |
| 15 | McKenzie, Sam | D | Knox (part) | -7.4% |
| 88 | Miller, Larry | D | Shelby (part) | -9.2% |
| 50 | Mitchell, Bo | D | Davidson (part) | 0.7% |
| 81 | Moody, Debra | R | Tipton | -12.7% |
| 8 | Moon, Jerome | R | Blount (part) | -5.4% |
| 61 | Ogles, Brandon | R | Williamson (part) | 2.6% |
| 98 | Parkinson, Antonio | D | Shelby (part) | -8.6% |
| 59 | Potts, Jason | D | Davidson (part) | 8% |
| 53 | Powell, Jason | D | Davidson (part) | 5.9% |
| 36 | Powers, Dennis | R | Anderson (part), Campbell, Union (part) | -11.8% |
| 33 | Ragan, John | R | Anderson (part) | -2.6% |
| 20 | Ramsey, Bob | R | Blount (part) | -0.8% |
| 74 | Reedy, Jay | R | Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery (part) | 8.7% |
| 34 | Rudd, Tim | R | Rutherford (part) | 42.8% |
| 39 | Rudder, Iris | R | Franklin (part), Marion (part), Moore | -9.4% |
| 21 | Russell, Lowell | R | Loudon (part), Monroe (part) | 1.6% |
| 25 | Sexton, Cameron | R | Cumberland, Putnam (part), Van Buren | 4.7% |
| 35 | Sexton, Jerry | R | Claiborne, Grainger, Union (part) | -10.9% |
| 80 | Shaw, Johnny | D | Hardeman (part), Madison (part) | -18.6% |
| 43 | Sherrell, Paul | R | Grundy, White, Warren (part) | -2.1% |
| 26 | Smith, Robin | R | Hamilton (part) | 3.1% |
| 49 | Sparks, Mike | R | Rutherford (part) | 15.5% |
| 52 | Stewart, Mike | D | Davidson (part) | 4.2% |
| 48 | Terry, Bryan | R | Rutherford (part) | 15.8% |
| 96 | Thompson, Dwayne | D | Shelby (part) | 3% |
| 73 | Todd, Chris | R | Madison (part) | -7.2% |
| 84 | Towns, Joe | D | Shelby (part) | -2.9% |
| 31 | Travis, Ron | R | Bledsoe, Rhea, Roane (part), Sequatchie | -0.2% |
| 95 | Vaughan, Kevin | R | Shelby (part) | 4.2% |
| 92 | Warner, Todd | R | Franklin (part), Lincoln (part), Marion (part), Marshall | -5% |
| 40 | Weaver, Terri Lynn | R | DeKalb (part), Smith, Sumner (part), Trousdale | 12.8% |
| 83 | White, Mark | R | Shelby (part) | -1.4% |
| 65 | Whitson, Sam | R | Williamson (part) | 9.3% |
| 42 | Williams, Ryan | R | Putnam (part) | 6.1% |
| 41 | Windle, John Mark | D | Fentress (part), Jackson, Morgan, Overton | -6.7% |
| 19 | Wright, Dave | R | Knox (part) | -4.6% |
| 14 | Zachary, Jason | R | Knox (part) | 2.5% |
Tennessee population projected to grow by 1 million over next 20 years
Source: Boyd Center
Tennessee’s population is projected to grow by about 1 million people by 2040, according to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee.
The state’s population was estimated at about 6.8 million in 2018. The Boyd Center’s projections put that number at 7.8 million in 2040 and 9.3 million in 2070.
Here’s the full release from the Boyd Center:
One in five Tennesseans will be 65 or older by 2040 and the state’s population is estimated to grow by more than 1 million people during that same period, according to the 2018–2070 population projections released this week by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research in the University of Tennessee, Knoxville’s Haslam College of Business.
About half of that growth will be in Middle Tennessee.
Boyd Center Associate Professor Matthew Harris, author of the projections, predicts that Tennessee’s population will climb 0.7 percent annually from its current estimate of 6.77 million in 2018 to 7.84 million in 2040. By 2070 that number is expected to reach 9.35 million, with a slightly lower projected annual growth rate of 0.45 percent.
“We expect population to grow more slowly over the coming decades than it has recently,” Harris said. “Falling birth rates and the fact that a very large cohort—the baby boomers—are aging both contribute to the decrease in population growth.”
Tim Kuhn, director of the Tennessee State Data Center, analyzed the data and projects that more than half of the growth by 2040 will be in Middle Tennessee, with Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, and Sumner Counties expected to gain more than a half million residents. Across the state, 66 counties will see population increases and 27 rural counties will experience decreases. Carter and Sullivan Counties in northeast Tennessee are the only urban counties expected to see slight decreases—of 0.46 percent and 0.01 percent, respectively—by 2040.
Spring Hill and Thompson’s Station show biggest population growth in state
The communities of Spring Hill and Thompson’s Station are experiencing the fastest population growth in the state, according to new Census tract data analyzed by the University of Tennessee. Nearly 6,200 people moved to the area between 2013 and 2017, a 19% increase.
Click on the map for a look at the top 20 population increases.
The statistics for the state’s nearly 1,500 census tracts show that 268, or 18%, showed significant population growth, while 90 tracts, or 6%, showed decreases.
Of the 20 fastest-growing tracts, 12 were in the Nashville metropolitan area. And the state capital region accounted for 46% of the tracts with population increases. The Memphis area accounted for 28 of the 90 tracts with decreases. Another 29 tracts posting population declines were located in rural areas.
New U.S. Census data: West TN population shrinking
If West Tennessee were a state unto itself, it would be shrinking, reports WREG TV of Memphis after a review of recent U.S. Census estimates.
The estimates show that the part of the state west of the Tennessee River, including Memphis and Shelby County, lost nearly 1,200 residents between 2010 and 2016, leaving a total population of just over 1.56 million. Of the 21 counties in the region, 15 experienced declines.
