School choice group’s poll finds Campbell, Yarbro, O’Connell atop Nashville mayor’s race
A Tennesseans for Student Success poll finds Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell leading the Nashville mayor’s race with 22% support. Fellow Sen. Jeff Yarbro is next with 17%, followed by Metro Council member Freddie O’Connell with 16%.
Here are the horse race results per the poll:
- Heidi Campbell: 22%
- Jeff Yarbro: 17%
- Freddie O’Connell: 16%
- Sharon Hurt: 7%
- Matt Wiltshire: 7%
- Jim Gingrich: 4%
- Alice Rolli: 4%
- Vivian Wilhoite: 3%
- Fran Bush: 2%
- Other: 19%
The poll of 500 likely Nashville voters was conducted by VictoryPhones between May 2 and May 4. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.37 percentage points.
Respondents were also asked who their second choice was in the race. Here are the responses:
- Heidi Campbell: 20%
- Jeff Yarbro: 20%
- Matt Wiltshire: 10%
- Freddie O’Connell: 9%
- Sharon Hurt: 7%
- Jim Gingrich: 6%
- Vivian Wilhoite: 4%
- Alice Rolli: 2%
- Fran Bush: 2%
- Other: 21%
And here are the top factors in determining which candidate voters would back:
- Positions on education and infrastructure spending: 22%
- Positions on social issues: 21%
- Local government experience: 18%
- Positions on economic issue: 11%
- Business experience: 6%
- Legislative experience: 5%
- The most liberal or conservative candidate: 4%
- Endorsements by other public officials: 1%
- Something else: 12%
New TNJ edition alert: SCOTENN applicants, lobbying spending, Vandy poll
The latest print edition of The Tennessee Journal is out. Here is what’s in it:
— 3 judges, defense attorney, and trial lawyer seek to fill high court vacancy.
— Lobbying spending jumps as much as 12% over pre-pandemic levels.
— Vanderbilt poll gauges attitudes toward abortion, transgender laws
— Truth in gifting: A look at what the political set can expect to get on Christmas.
Also: An overhaul in the House speaker’s office, lawmakers confer in Hawaii, law enforcement training center gets green light (without Tullahoma element), and a new restaurant in Memphis will be called The Lobbyist.
As always, access the your copy of the TNJ here.
Or subscribe here.
Poll finds GOP voters happy with GOP in Tenn.
A new poll finds Republican primary voters are largely pleased with GOP politicians and policies in Tennessee.
The survey was conducted by ARW Strategies, which is run by Andrew Weissert, who previously ran We Ask America, a pollster that received a B-minus rating from FiveThirtyEight.com.
Here’s the release:
Tennessee Statewide Survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters
ARW Strategies, a national polling firm, today released a statewide public opinion poll of likely Republican primary voters in Tennessee. The poll took the pulse on Republican voters’ opinions about party leaders, Governor Lee’s job performance, and recent legislation signed into law by the governor.
While the Republican Party in Tennessee remains dominated by former President Donald Trump, Republicans are also nearly as enthusiastic about their governor, Bill Lee. From his handling of the pandemic to recent legislation signed into law, Lee’s support among his base looks impenetrable heading into his re-election next year.
ARW Strategies was founded by Andrew Weissert, former Chief Pollster for We Ask America. His work has been featured and covered by national publications like The New Yorker, Forbes, Politico, The Hill, National Review, Newsweek, and numerous local news organizations. This poll was not commissioned or paid for by any candidate or committee. ARW Strategies conducted this poll from its own resources to discover the current state of opinion among GOP Primary Voters in Tennessee
Key Takeaways
Donald Trump remains the face of the Republican Party. A massive 90% of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of the former president, with nearly three-quarters (72%) having a very favorable opinion of him. Just 10% say they view Trump unfavorably. Additionally, of those surveyed, 75% consider themselves to be Trump/America First Republicans, while just a quarter consider themselves to be some other form of Republican – traditional, social conservative, Tea Party, Libertarian.Republican voters overwhelmingly like Governor Bill Lee and approve of the job he’s doing. 85% of Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Lee, while 86% approve of the job he’s done as governor. Just 14% disapprove of his job performance and only 11% view him unfavorably. 88% of self-identifying Trump/America First Republicans approve of Lee’s job performance, with just 9% disapproving.
Governor Lee’s strong image and job performance can be directly traced to his record and recent legislation. Republicans are highly supportive of Governor Lee’s recent actions, with 83% approving of his handling of the pandemic. 86% are more likely to vote for his re-election for the recent transgender athlete bill he signed into law. 82% are more likely to vote for his re-election for the law he signed allowing Tennesseans to carry firearms without a permit, and 81% support his school choice scholarship program.
Senators Marsha Blackburn and Bill Hagerty also enjoy exceptional images with Republican voters. For Senator Blackburn, 79% of Republicans view her favorably, while 17% have an unfavorable opinion of her. 78% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Senator Hagerty, with just 12% having an unfavorable one. Among those who call themselves Trump/America First Republicans, Senators Blackburn and Hagerty are even more popular where their images are 84% Fav/12% Unfav and 82% Fav/9% Unfav respectively.
Republicans want heavy emphasis on crime, illegal immigration and election integrity. The number one issue that Republican primary voters want the party to focus on heading into 2022, at 28%, is stopping crime and supporting law enforcement. In second, chosen by 23% of voters, is fighting illegal immigration and opposing sanctuary cities. In third, with 19%, is ensuring election integrity and preventing voter fraud.
Methodology
This poll was conducted between June 26th and 27th, 2021. In all, 600 interviews were achieved among likely 2022 Republican Primary voters in Tennessee. 324 of these responses came from cell phones. The Margin of Error for this survey is +/- 4% at a Confidence Interval of 95%.
Poll: Trump holds 56% to 42% advantage over Biden in Tennessee
Republican President Donald Trump leads Democrat Joe Biden by 14 percentage points, according to a new SurveyMonkey-Tableau 2020 poll.
The online poll of 4,642 likely voters had Trump with 56% and Biden with 42%. Trump won Tennessee 61% to 35% against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Among men, 65% preferred Trump, while 34% backed Biden. Women were split 49% to 49% between the two candidates.
Biden was ahead in Tennessee among younger voters (65% of those 24 or younger and 55% of those between 25 and 34), but Trump held a wide advatage among older voters (62% of those between 45 and 64).
Trump led by a margin of 70% to 29% in rural areas, though that advantage dropped to 53% to 45% in the suburbs. Biden led 60% to 37% in urban areas.
The poll is co-sponsored by the political news site Axios. But polling site FiveThirtyEight.com doesn’t hold the survey in particularly high regard, giving it a D-minus rating.
Poll finds partisan divide on return of high school sports in Nashville
A poll commissioned by Baker Group Strategies finds 49% of Nashvillians support allowing high school sports to resume play during the COVID-19 pandemic, while 45% oppose.
The feeling was stronger among Republicans, who support a return of sports without spectators by a 72% to 21% margin. Just 38% of Democrats supported a return, while 57% opposed. Fifty-three percent of indpndents support resuming sprots, while 42% oppose. Democrats support is just 38% – 57%. Among Independents support is 53% – 42%.
Here is a breakdown among various subgroups (note that the Baker group is consulting on Republican state Sen. Steve Dickerson’s re-election campaign in District 20):
| SUBGROUP | SUPPORT | OPPOSE | DIFFERENCE |
| Conservatives | 70% | 26% | 44% |
| New Voters | 63% | 31% | 32% |
| Non-College Men | 59% | 35% | 24% |
| Men 45+ | 57% | 39% | 18% |
| State Senate District 20 | 51% | 42% | 9% |
| Moderates | 47% | 45% | 2% |
The phone poll of 500 registered voters found 78% find the quality of life in Nashville to be good or excellent, while 21% said it’s not so good or poor. Among college educated voters, 83% had a positive outlook on living in the city, while 71% of non-college educated voters felt the same.
However, just 37% of voters said they think Nashville is headed in the right direction, while 44% said it is going in the wrong direction.
Polls find support for expanded absentee voting during pandemic
Two polls released Tuesday indicate strong support for expanding voting by mail amid the coronavirus pandemic.
One survey conducted on behalf of Secure Democracy by Republican pollster Anchor Research and the Baker Group found 67% of Tennesseans support allowing all voters to cast absentee ballots while also keeping polling locations open. Another 31% were opposed.
A survey conducted on behalf of Vanderbilt University found 57% support voting by mail, while 42% opposed. The SSRS poll found opinions were heavily influenced by voters’ political leanings. While 81% of self-identified Democrats said they supported absentee balloting, 71% of Republicans were opposed. Among independents, 68% said they were in favor, while 32% were against.
Among other findings, Secure Democracy found a 61% to 33% approval rating for Gov. Bill Lee and a 57% to 43% favorability rating for President Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt had Lee’s approval rating at 64% to 27%, and Trump’s at 51% to 47%.
Vanderbilt polled 1,000 registered voters by phone between May 5 and May 22. It has a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points. Secure Democracy’s online poll of 740 likley voters was conducted on May 26.
Poll dives into Tenn. attitudes amid COVID-19
A poll conducted by Harvard, Northeastern, and Rutgers universities found 64% of Tennesseans approve of Lee’s handling of the coronavirus response, while 14% disapprove.
The online survey of 513 Tennesseans (41% Republicans, 30% Democrats, and 24% independents) has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
Here are some of the findings for the Tennessee portion of the poll:
How concerned, if at all, do you currently feel about the following: – Getting coronavirus yourself:
- Not at all concerned: 14%
- Not very concerned: 18%
- Somewhat concerned: 38%
- Very concerned: 28%
- Not applicable to me: 2%
How much, if at all, has your life been disrupted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak:
- Not at All: 6%
- A little: 13%
- A moderate amount: 30%
- A lot: 22%
- A great deal: 32%
In the last 24 hours, did you get any news or information related to the current coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak from the following sources:
- Friends and family: 49%
- Radio news: 20%
- Podcasts: 6%
- Local TV: 56%
- Network TV: 50%
- Cable TV: 39%
- Late night comedy shows: 8%
I feel well-informed about the current state of the COVID-19 outbreak:
- Strongly disagree: 2%
- Somewhat disagree: 6%
- Neither agree nor disagree: 14%
- Somewhat agree: 48%
- Strongly agree: 30%
Poll: Gov. Bill Lee has 55% approval rating
Gov. Bill Lee arrives for his second State of the State address in Nashville on Feb. 3, 2020. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)
Republican Gov. Bill Lee has a 55% approval rating going into his second year in office, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll. Twenty-seven percent of respondents said they disapproved of the governor’s performance, while 18% were unsure.
Lee’s popularity was highest among fellow Republicans, 79% of whom viewed him favorably, while 26% of Democrats had a positive view of the governor. About half of independents approved.
The pollsters also asked respondents how they would vote in head-to-head matchups in the U.S. Senate race. Respondents said they would prefer Republican Bill Hagerty over Democrat James Mackler by 55% to 33%, and Republican Manny Sethi over Mackler by 46% to 35%. Mason-Dixon did not release details on the GOP primary matchup between Hagerty and Sethi.
The poll of 625 registered voters, including 247 Republicans, 207 independents, and 171 Democrats, was conducted between Jan. 28 and Jan. 30. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Poll: Trump has big advantage over any Democrat in Tennessee
New polling results suggest President Donald Trump doesn’t have much to fear in his efforts to carry Tennessee again in November. According to a survey by Mason-Dixon, Tennessee voters give Trump a wide advantage, regardless of who turns out to be the Democratic nominee.
Here are the head to heads:
- Trump 55%, Joe Biden 39%.
- Trump 57%, Bernie Sanders 37%.
- Trump 57%, Elizabeth Warren 36%.
- Trump 55%, Pete Buttigieg 38%.
- Trump 54%, Mike Bloomberg 39%.
The poll of 625 registered voters, including 247 Republicans, 207 independents, and 171 Democrats, was conducted between Jan. 28 and Jan. 30. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Tennessee Super Tuesday presidential primary is on March 3.
