An internal poll conducted for Democrat Heidi Campbell shows her leading Republican Andy Ogles by 3 percentage points in the open 5th Congressional District in Tennessee.

The poll of 1,622 likely voters was conducted by FrederickPolls, which has a B/C rating from FiveThirtyEight.com.

“Elections are about choices and there’s never been a clearer difference between two candidates: I’m a mom, a former mayor and a Tennessee senator who will work with members of any party to solve problems and get results for working families,” Campbell said in a release. “Andy Ogles is a Trump Republican who wants to use the government to limit our freedom and to control what you think and what you do with your body.”

Here’s the polling memo:

VOTE FOR CONGRESS
Date: Aug 12-17, 2022
Poll: Frederick Polls
Interviews: 1,622
Heidi Campbell: 51%
Andy Ogles: 48%

Other Findings Among Persuadable Voters: 

— Protecting abortion access will be a key issue. Among the 54% of respondents who said they could still be persuaded to support either candidate, abortion access emerged as a salient issue with a clear preference for Heidi Campbell who supports the right to private healthcare decisions without government interference. By comparison, Andy Ogles favors policy that would ban all abortion after conception, according to his website.

— Persuadable voters largely “pro choice.” 70% of the persuadable respondents labeled themselves “pro choice” and at least 9 out of ten, favored abortion exemptions for “life of the mother” (92%) and for “victims of rape or incest” (90%). Additionally, 89% opposed any effort to criminalize women who travel to get a legal abortion in other states. 

— Persuadable voters who know Andy Ogles do not like him. Andy Ogles had a net -31% unfavorable rating (13% favorable, 44% unfavorable) while Heidi Campbell had a net +16% favorable rating (29% favorable, 13% unfavorable).

— Persuadable voters acknowledge Biden as POTUS. 77% of the persuadable respondents said Joe Biden was the legitimate and honest winner of the 2020 presidential election against Donald Trump. Andy Ogles attended a Jan. 6 “Stop the Steal” rally in Nashville, where he said, “The hoards of hell are here to wage war upon us.” Ogles, more recently, has called for the impeachment of President Biden, the AP reports.

— Persuadable voters have soured on Trump. Andy Ogles has already endorsed Donald Trump for President in 2024, but that’s not a choice persuadable voters in the 5th District will make. Donald Trump had a net -46% unfavorable rating (26% favorable, 72% unfavorable). 

Methodology: 

— FrederickPolls conducted a survey to measure voter preferences for Congress in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District. 

— Interviews were completed from Aug. 12 to 17, 2022 with 1,622 likely voters in the November General Election. 

— Care was taken to represent the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate based on past voter turnout statistics. 

— The results of this survey, conducted via internet and phone interviews, has a margin of error of +/-2.4%.