School choice group’s poll finds Campbell, Yarbro, O’Connell atop Nashville mayor’s race
A Tennesseans for Student Success poll finds Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell leading the Nashville mayor’s race with 22% support. Fellow Sen. Jeff Yarbro is next with 17%, followed by Metro Council member Freddie O’Connell with 16%.
Here are the horse race results per the poll:
- Heidi Campbell: 22%
- Jeff Yarbro: 17%
- Freddie O’Connell: 16%
- Sharon Hurt: 7%
- Matt Wiltshire: 7%
- Jim Gingrich: 4%
- Alice Rolli: 4%
- Vivian Wilhoite: 3%
- Fran Bush: 2%
- Other: 19%
The poll of 500 likely Nashville voters was conducted by VictoryPhones between May 2 and May 4. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.37 percentage points.
Respondents were also asked who their second choice was in the race. Here are the responses:
- Heidi Campbell: 20%
- Jeff Yarbro: 20%
- Matt Wiltshire: 10%
- Freddie O’Connell: 9%
- Sharon Hurt: 7%
- Jim Gingrich: 6%
- Vivian Wilhoite: 4%
- Alice Rolli: 2%
- Fran Bush: 2%
- Other: 21%
And here are the top factors in determining which candidate voters would back:
- Positions on education and infrastructure spending: 22%
- Positions on social issues: 21%
- Local government experience: 18%
- Positions on economic issue: 11%
- Business experience: 6%
- Legislative experience: 5%
- The most liberal or conservative candidate: 4%
- Endorsements by other public officials: 1%
- Something else: 12%
Campbell hits Ogles for ‘red herring’ remark on abortion exceptions
Democratic congressional candidate Heidi Campbell is out with another ad criticizing Republican opponent Andy Ogles position on banning most abortions in Tennessee.
Here’s what she says in the ad:
This summer, Andy Ogles cheered for Tennessee’s statewide ban on abortions. He called victims of rape and incest “a red herring used by the left and radicals.” This November, moms and daughters, fathers and brothers are coming together to protect our freedom to make health care decisions without interference from politicians like Andy Ogles. I’m Heidi Campbell and I’m running for Congress because in America our daughters deserve the same rights and freedoms as our sons. I’m Heidi Campbell, I approve this message.
Campbell and Ogles are vying for the 5th Congressional District seat, which is being vacated by longtime U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville) after the legislature redrew its boundaries to make it more friendly to Republican candidates.
Trump endorses Republican Ogles in 5th District
Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Republican Andy Ogles in his 5th Congressional District race against Democrat Heidi Campbell.
Here’s what Trump said in a statement released by his political action committee on Saturday morning:
As the former and outstanding Mayor of Maury County, Andy knows how to Create Jobs, Grow the Economy, Keep our Neighborhoods Safe, and Protect our Constitutional Rights.
In Congress, Andy will Secure our Southern Border, Stop Inflation, Uphold the Rule of Law, and Defend our Second Amendment.
Andy Ogles is a tireless fighter for our America First agenda, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement!
Campbell was quick to point out that Trump’s original choice for the nomination was Morgan Ortagus, who was booted from the primary. Ogles was among those prodding lawmakers to pass a law seeking to create new residency requirements for congressional candidates, but Gov. Bill Lee slow-walked the bill to have it take effect after the field had been set. The Republican Party’s executive committee then voted to declare Ortagus and two others ineligible for the GOP nomination.
“Andy Ogles wasn’t even Donald Trump’s first choice,” Campbell said. “He shouldn’t be yours.”
Heidi Campbell launches first TV ad in 5th District race
Democrat Heidi Campbell has launched the first ad of the 5th Congressional District general election campaign. Campbell faces Republican Andy Ogles in the contest for the newly drawn seat comprising parts of Davidson, Williamson, and Wilson counties along with all of Marshall, Maury, and Lewis counties.
Here’s the script of the Campbell spot:
CAMPBELL: My opponent likes to argue.
OGLES: We’re at war… political war, culture war, spiritual war.
CAMPBELL: I like results. In Congress, I’ll work with anyone to put freedom for families first. That’s the freedom to our own health care decisions. Strengthening the promise of Social Security and Medicare. Tools for every hardworking family to build a good life. That’s freedom worth fighting for.
My name is Heidi Campbell. I’m running for Congress and I’m asking for your vote. I’m Heidi Campbell. I approve this message.
Is Campbell really leading Ogles? That’s what her internal poll says
An internal poll conducted for Democrat Heidi Campbell shows her leading Republican Andy Ogles by 3 percentage points in the open 5th Congressional District in Tennessee.
The poll of 1,622 likely voters was conducted by FrederickPolls, which has a B/C rating from FiveThirtyEight.com.
“Elections are about choices and there’s never been a clearer difference between two candidates: I’m a mom, a former mayor and a Tennessee senator who will work with members of any party to solve problems and get results for working families,” Campbell said in a release. “Andy Ogles is a Trump Republican who wants to use the government to limit our freedom and to control what you think and what you do with your body.”
Here’s the polling memo:
VOTE FOR CONGRESS
Date: Aug 12-17, 2022
Poll: Frederick Polls
Interviews: 1,622
Heidi Campbell: 51%
Andy Ogles: 48%Other Findings Among Persuadable Voters:
— Protecting abortion access will be a key issue. Among the 54% of respondents who said they could still be persuaded to support either candidate, abortion access emerged as a salient issue with a clear preference for Heidi Campbell who supports the right to private healthcare decisions without government interference. By comparison, Andy Ogles favors policy that would ban all abortion after conception, according to his website.
— Persuadable voters largely “pro choice.” 70% of the persuadable respondents labeled themselves “pro choice” and at least 9 out of ten, favored abortion exemptions for “life of the mother” (92%) and for “victims of rape or incest” (90%). Additionally, 89% opposed any effort to criminalize women who travel to get a legal abortion in other states.
— Persuadable voters who know Andy Ogles do not like him. Andy Ogles had a net -31% unfavorable rating (13% favorable, 44% unfavorable) while Heidi Campbell had a net +16% favorable rating (29% favorable, 13% unfavorable).
— Persuadable voters acknowledge Biden as POTUS. 77% of the persuadable respondents said Joe Biden was the legitimate and honest winner of the 2020 presidential election against Donald Trump. Andy Ogles attended a Jan. 6 “Stop the Steal” rally in Nashville, where he said, “The hoards of hell are here to wage war upon us.” Ogles, more recently, has called for the impeachment of President Biden, the AP reports.
— Persuadable voters have soured on Trump. Andy Ogles has already endorsed Donald Trump for President in 2024, but that’s not a choice persuadable voters in the 5th District will make. Donald Trump had a net -46% unfavorable rating (26% favorable, 72% unfavorable).
Methodology:
— FrederickPolls conducted a survey to measure voter preferences for Congress in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District.
— Interviews were completed from Aug. 12 to 17, 2022 with 1,622 likely voters in the November General Election.
— Care was taken to represent the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate based on past voter turnout statistics.
— The results of this survey, conducted via internet and phone interviews, has a margin of error of +/-2.4%.
Campbell says she has raised nearly $300K for Democratic bid for 5th District seat
State Sen. Heidi Campbell says she has raised nearly $300,000 for her campaign to succeed U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper, a fellow Nashville Democrat, in the 5th Congressional District. The seat was redrawn this year to split the capital city into three heavily-Republican districts.
Here’s the release from the Campbell campaign:
NASHVILLE—Tennessee Sen. Heidi Campbell’s campaign for the 5th Congressional District announced raising $297,630 in less than three months of fundraising.
The campaign says it secured contributions from nearly 1,000 donors at the FEC second quarter deadline on June 30.
“Sen. Campbell is building a campaign that’s committed to solving problems and making life better for Middle Tennessee families,” said campaign treasurer Chip Forrester. “Donors, from the grassroots up, are showing their support and we’re confident we will have the resources this fall to present a clear contrast between Sen. Campbell’s hopeful vision for our country and whichever ideological agenda stumbles out of the GOP primary.”
GOP ad hits Trump in attack on Dickerson rival
An attack ad paid for by the political action committee of state Senate Speaker Randy McNally (R-Oak Ridge) takes a swipe at an unusual target: President Donald Trump.
“Are you tired of rude politicians who don’t treat others with respect?” the narrator says to open the ad while images of U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Trump flash on the screen.
The ad then moves on to a video of former Oak Hill Mayor Heidi Campbell raising her voice at someone during a Board of Commissioners meeting and threatening to have the person removed. The context of the encounter is not made clear in the ad.
Campbell is challenging state Sen. Steve Dickerson (R-Nashville) in next week’s election.
The ad also alleges Campbell has been arrested three times, including twice for drunken driving. The spot calls her “disrespectful, unhinged Heidi Campbell.”
And I will advertise it: Dickerson talks marijuana in latest spot
Republican state Sen. Steve Dickerson’s latest ad touts his leading role in efforts to legalize medical marijuana in Tennessee. Dickerson is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Heidi Campbell this year.
“This is a marijuana plant,” Dickerson says in the ad the camera zooms in on an image of a sparkling cannabis flower.
Here’s what Dickerson says in the rest of the spot:
As your state senator, I’ve led the fight to legalize medical marijuana so our veterans and sickest Tennesseans can deal with chronic pain. But this same life-saving plant has led to mass incarceration, with non-violent marijuana possession resulting in lengthy prison sentences. I think that’s wrong. That’s why I’ve been pushing for criminal justice reform. I’m Dr. Steve Dickerson, and I put people before politics.
Tennessee Equality Project rescinds Dickerson endorsement over Senate speaker’s ad
The Tennessee Equality Project has rescinded its endorsement of Republican state Sen. Steve Dickerson of Nashville over an ad being run on his behalf by the Senate Speaker Randy McNally’s political action committee.
The ad targets Dickerson’s Democratic challenger, Heidi Campbell, for saying supportive things about Gideon’s Army, which the spot describes as an extremist group calling for “revolutionary changes to our way of life.” Democrats have pushed back against the ad presenting Gideon’s Army as supporting rioting. They point to the group’s efforts to mentor young people and de-escalate violence in predominantly black North Nashville. The organization was also heavily involved in cleanup efforts after a tornado wrought heavy damage in the neighborhood in March. The Tennessee Equality Project denounced the spot as a “disgusting, racist ad.”
“Although he has an exemplary record on LGBTQ rights in the Legislature, elected officials are called to speak out against racism in politics,” TEP executive director Chris Sanders said in a blog post.
Here’s the ad:
The decision to withdraw the Dickerson endorsement means the group is now backing just one Republican candidate for the General Assembly: Knoxville businessman Eddie Mannis, who is running to succeed retiring state Rep. Martin Daniel (R-Knoxville).
Teachers’ union endorses Republican Dickerson over Democratic challenger Campbell
The Tennessee Education Association, the state’s largest teachers’ union, has endorsed incumbent Republican state Sen. Steve Dickerson (R-Nashville) over his Democratic challenger, Oak Hill Mayor Heidi Campbell.
“Davidson County is home to the best educators in Tennessee, and I will continue to support meaningful legislation that will fully fund our schools, empower school principals and support our teachers,” Dickerson said in a statement.
Here’s the TEA’s endorsement letter:
Dear Sen. Steve Dickerson:
You have received the TEA endorsement for re‐election to the Tennessee State Senate for District 20. Your strong legislative record of supporting and defending Tennessee’s public schools and the dedicated professionals who work in them is the basis of the unanimous endorsement by the members of the TEA Fund for Children and Public Education, our political action committee. Congratulations, for it is well deserved.
In the many legislative battles over public education, your advocacy and care have stood out to educators here in Nashville and across Tennessee.
Fighting privatization. You have a long history as an ardent opponent of vouchers, not only when they targeted your senate district in the most recent legislative fight, but in any and every manner privatization schemes have been proposed. Your opposition has been vocal and effective and based on your knowledge that public schools are the foundation of our communities.
Defending the profession. When teachers’ careers have been threatened or attacked by misguided policies and proposed legislation, you have been a stalwart defender and advocate for educators. When the State Board of Education passed a policy to revoke teaching licenses based on the fuzzy numbers of TVAAS, you stepped in to help pass legislation outlawing the practice. You recognize teaching as a profession—one as important as your own—and treat it with the respect and support it deserves.
Improving student outcomes with community schools. All of us who are dedicated to improving student outcomes in schools with high poverty rates know we must address the barriers to learning that accompany the economic insecurity of families. It is why TEA has worked closely with you to increase efforts to expand and enhance community schools in Tennessee. Community schools have a proven track record and are grounded in the knowledge that the emotional, social, and physical needs of students must be addressed for them to succeed academically.
It is critical to keep effective and respected advocates for public schools in the state senate. That is why we fully support your re‐election and ask every voter who supports public education to cast their vote for you.
Good luck in your campaign. Sincerely,
Beth Brown
President, Tennessee Education Association
