As first reported in the print edition of The Tennessee Journal, internal polling for supporters of enshrining the state’s “right to work” law into the Tennessee Constitution shows 58% said they plan to vote in favor, compared with 22% who were opposed and 20% who were undecided.

The survey of 500 likely general election voters was conducted for the Yes on 1 campaign by Cygnal, which gets a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.com. The poll also found 61% of Tennesseans have an unfavorable opinion of Democratic President Joe Biden. Fifty-four percent said Tennessee is headed in the right direction, while 37% said the state is on the wrong course.

Here’s the full polling memo:

CYGNAL POLL: AMENDMENT ONE HAS STRONG SUPPORT

DATE: Wednesday, October 12, 2022

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: John Rogers, Director of Client Strategy

RE: Survey of 500 Likely General Election Voters in Tennessee, conducted October 7 – 9

Amendment One with 58% support as early voting begins in Tennessee. A recent survey by Cygnal shows that Tennessee voters overwhelmingly favor passage of Amendment One and the support holds true across partisan lines and education and income levels. 58% of voters overall say they plan to vote “Yes” on the amendment, only 22% plan to vote “No,” and 20% of voters are undecided.

Crucially, among voters who say they “always” vote on state constitutional amendments and ballot initiatives, support is even higher (60% Yes / 24% No / 21% Undecided) than among voters overall.

Support for Amendment One strong across party lines and education and income levels. Support for Amendment One is broad and deep: 59% of Republicans, 59% of Democrats, and 56% of Independents plan to vote “Yes” on the initiative. There is no dip in support when looking at education or income levels, either: 59% of voters who make under $50,000 annually support the amendment, 55% of middle-income earners ($50k-$99k annually) are going to vote “Yes,” and 61% of voters earning
$100k or more plan to vote for the amendment.

Likewise, the amendment has 60% support among college graduates, 57% support among non-college graduates, and 62% of voters who have earned a technical degree support the initiative.

Biden is unpopular (-27 net image), majority think TN headed in the right direction. The Cygnal survey found that 61% of Tennesseans have an unfavorable opinion of President Joe Biden, compared to only 34% who have a favorable view. Biden’s image is net -34 among Independent voters.

A majority of voters are optimistic about the state of things in Tennessee, with 54% saying thatTennessee is headed in the right direction, to only 37% who think the state is going down the wrong track (9% are unsure).

METHODOLOGY: This probabilistic survey was conducted October 7 – 9, 2022, with 500 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±4.34%. Known registered voters were interviewed via IVR and SMS. This survey was weighted to a likely general election voter universe.

ABOUT CYGNAL: Cygnal is an award-winning international polling, public opinion, and predictive analytics firm that pioneered multi-mode polling, text-to-web collection, and emotive analysis. Cygnal consistently ranks as the most accurate firm, and clients rely on Cygnal’s ability to create intelligence for action. Its team members have worked in 48 states and 17 countries on more than 2,700 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.