See by how much Tennessee districts miss their ideal populations following census count
The U.S. Census Bureau late last week released population count data to be used for the once-a-decade redistricting process. The information arrived in a legacy format that requires some massaging to make usable for legislative consultants. But the City University of New York has already processed the numbers in the form of a national map.
We’ve teased out the Tennessee numbers to show how much variance current legislative districts have with the ideal population. State case law has established General Assembly seats can fall within plus or minus 5% of the average. The bigger the variance, the more districts will have to be shifted before next year’s election.
Here are the breakdowns for the Senate and House:
SENATE:
| District | Senator | Party | Counties | over/under |
| 29 | Akbari, Raumesh | D | Shelby (part) | -12% |
| 15 | Bailey, Paul | R | Bledsoe, Cumberland, Jackson, Overton, Putnam, White | 3.8% |
| 9 | Bell, Mike | R | Bradley (part), McMinn, Meigs, Monroe, Polk | -5.6% |
| 16 | Bowling, Janice | R | Coffee, Franklin, Grundy, Marion, Sequatchie, Van Buren, Warren | -1.6% |
| 7 | Briggs, Richard | R | Knox (part) | -1.8% |
| 20 | Campbell, Heidi | D | Davidson (part) | 6.7% |
| 3 | Crowe, Rusty | R | Carter (part), Washington, Unicoi | -6.5% |
| 10 | Gardenhire, Todd | R | Bradley (part), Hamilton (part) | -4.4% |
| 19 | Gilmore, Brenda | D | Davidson (part) | 8.6% |
| 18 | Haile, Ferrell | R | Davidson (part), Sumner, Trousdale | 13.8% |
| 28 | Hensley, Joey | R | Giles, Lawrence, Lewis, Maury, Perry, Wayne | 1.6% |
| 27 | Jackson, Ed | R | Madison, Crockett, Dyer, Lake, Lauderdale | -13.2% |
| 23 | Johnson, Jack | R | Williamson | 18.3% |
| 31 | Kelsey, Brian | R | Shelby (part) | -0.1% |
| 30 | Kyle, Sara | D | Shelby (part) | -10.3% |
| 4 | Lundberg, Jon | R | Carter (part), Johson, Sullivan | -10.4% |
| 6 | Massey, Becky Duncan | R | Knox (part) | -3% |
| 5 | McNally, Lt. Gov. Randy | R | Anderson, Knox (part), Loudon | -3.5% |
| 8 | Niceley, Frank | R | Claiborne, Grainger, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Union | -7.6% |
| 17 | Pody, Mark | R | Cannon, Clay, DeKalb, Macon, Smith, Wilson | 12.2% |
| 22 | Powers, Bill | R | Stewart, Houston, Montgomery | 15.6% |
| 14 | Reeves, Shane | R | Bedford, Lincoln, Marshall, Moore, Rutherford (part) | 4.2% |
| 25 | Roberts, Kerry | R | Cheatham, Dickson, Hickman, Humphreys, Robertson | 1.3% |
| 33 | Robinson, Katrina | D | Shelby (part) | -5.1% |
| 32 | Rose, Paul | R | Tipton, Shelby (part) | 0.6% |
| 1 | Southerland, Steve | R | Cocke, Greene, Hamblen, Sevier (part) | -7% |
| 24 | Stevens, John | R | Benton, Carroll, Gibson, Henry, Obion, and Weakle | -9% |
| 2 | Swann, Art | R | Blount, Sevier (part) | 0% |
| 26 | Walley, Page | R | Chester, Decatur, Fayette, Hardeman, Hardin, Haywood, Henderson, McNairy | -7.1% |
| 11 | Watson, Bo | R | Hamilton (part) | -1.4% |
| 13 | White, Dawn | R | Rutherford (part) | 19.1% |
| 12 | Yager, Ken | R | Campbell, Fentress, Morgan, Rhea, Roane, Pickett, Scott Counties | -8.4% |
| 21 | Yarbro, Jeff | D | Davidson (part) | 12% |
HOUSE
| District | Incumbent | Party | Counties | over/under |
| 7 | Alexander, Rebecca | R | Washington (part) | -5.2% |
| 37 | Baum, Charlie | R | Rutherford (part) | 15.1% |
| 51 | Beck, Bill | D | Davidson (part) | 7.9% |
| 46 | Boyd, Clark | R | Cannon, DeKalb (part), Wilson (part) | 14.7% |
| 47 | Bricken, Rush | R | Coffee, Warren (part) | 2.2% |
| 71 | Byrd, David | R | Hardin, Lawrence (part), Lewis, Wayne, | -10.3% |
| 32 | Calfee, Kent | R | Loudon (part), Roane (part) | -10.4% |
| 3 | Campbell, Scotty | R | Carter (part), Johnson, Sullivan (part) | -9.1% |
| 87 | Camper, Karen | D | Shelby (part) | -2.5% |
| 12 | Carr, Dale | R | Sevier (part) | -4.7% |
| 16 | Carringer, Michele | R | Knox (part) | -4.9% |
| 29 | Carter, Joan | R | Hamiton (part) | 15.1% |
| 63 | Casada, Glen | R | Williamson (part) | 42.9% |
| 64 | Cepicky, Scott | R | Maury (part) | 14.4% |
| 85 | Chism, Jesse | D | Shelby (part) | -3.3% |
| 55 | Clemmons, John Ray | D | Davidson (part) | 0.2% |
| 23 | Cochran, Mark | R | McMinn, Monroe (part) | -2.1% |
| 86 | Cooper, Barbara | D | Shelby (part) | -8.8% |
| 1 | Crawford, John | R | Sullivan (part) | -13.5% |
| 69 | Curcio, Michael | R | Dickson (part), Hickman, Maury (part) | 1.8% |
| 76 | Darby, Tandy | R | Carroll (part), Obion (part), Weakley | -15.9% |
| 54 | Dixie, Vincent | D | Davidson (part) | -5.1% |
| 70 | Doggett, Clay | R | Giles, Lawrence (part) | -3.2% |
| 10 | Eldridge, Rick | R | Hamblen | -7.6% |
| 11 | Faison, Jeremy | R | Cocke, Greene (part), Jefferson (part) | -10.6% |
| 17 | Farmer, Andrew | R | Jefferson (part), Sevier (part) | -3.1% |
| 56 | Freeman, Bob | D | Davidson (part) | 1.5% |
| 94 | Gant, Ron | R | Hardeman (part), Fayette, McNairy | 1% |
| 45 | Garrett, Johnny | R | Sumner (part) | 10.4% |
| 97 | Gillespie, John | R | Shelby (part) | 0.5% |
| 75 | Griffey, Bruce | R | Benton, Henry, Stewart | -11.6% |
| 77 | Grills, Rusty | R | Dyer, Lake, Obion (part) | -10.4% |
| 28 | Hakeem, Yusuf | D | Hamiton (part) | -2.1% |
| 79 | Halford, Curtis | R | Carroll (part), Gibson | -6.8% |
| 24 | Hall, Mark | R | Bradley (part) | 0.4% |
| 93 | Hardaway, G. A. | D | Shelby (part) | -8.8% |
| 90 | Harris, Torrey C. | D | Shelby (part) | -15.3% |
| 72 | Haston, Kirk | R | Chester, Decatur, Henderson, Perry | -6.9% |
| 5 | Hawk, David | R | Greene (part) | -10.3% |
| 27 | Hazlewood, Patsy | R | Hamilton (part) | 1.6% |
| 30 | Helton, Esther | R | Hamilton (part) | 6.9% |
| 9 | Hicks, Gary | R | Washington (part) | -9.2% |
| 6 | Hicks, Tim | R | washington | -4.3% |
| 67 | Hodges, Jason | D | Montgomery (part) | 15.2% |
| 4 | Holsclaw, John | R | Carter (part), Unicoi | -8.7% |
| 22 | Howell, Dan | R | Bradley (part), Meigs, Polk | -1.4% |
| 2 | Hulsey, Bud | R | Sullivan (part) | -10% |
| 82 | Hurt, Chris | R | Crockett, Haywood, Lauderdale | -18.5% |
| 60 | Jernigan, Darren | D | Davidson (part) | -0.5% |
| 68 | Johnson, Curtis | R | Montgomery (part) | 30.5% |
| 13 | Johnson, Gloria | D | Knox (part) | -5.1% |
| 38 | Keisling, Kelly | R | Clay, Fentress (part), Macon, Pickett, Scott | -2.3% |
| 66 | Kumar, Sabi | R | Robertson | 4.3% |
| 89 | Lafferty, Justin | R | Knox (part) | 8.1% |
| 91 | Lamar, London | D | Shelby (part) | -16.7% |
| 44 | Lamberth, William | R | Sumner (part) | 22.6% |
| 99 | Leatherwood, Tom | R | Shelby (part) | 1.5% |
| 78 | Littleton, Mary | R | Cheatham, Dickson (part) | 0.8% |
| 58 | Love, Harold | D | Davidson (part) | 5.8% |
| 57 | Lynn, Susan | R | Wilson (part) | 27% |
| 18 | Mannis, Eddie | R | Knox (part) | -2.5% |
| 62 | Marsh, Pat | R | Bedford, Lincoln (part) | -2.1% |
| 15 | McKenzie, Sam | D | Knox (part) | -7.4% |
| 88 | Miller, Larry | D | Shelby (part) | -9.2% |
| 50 | Mitchell, Bo | D | Davidson (part) | 0.7% |
| 81 | Moody, Debra | R | Tipton | -12.7% |
| 8 | Moon, Jerome | R | Blount (part) | -5.4% |
| 61 | Ogles, Brandon | R | Williamson (part) | 2.6% |
| 98 | Parkinson, Antonio | D | Shelby (part) | -8.6% |
| 59 | Potts, Jason | D | Davidson (part) | 8% |
| 53 | Powell, Jason | D | Davidson (part) | 5.9% |
| 36 | Powers, Dennis | R | Anderson (part), Campbell, Union (part) | -11.8% |
| 33 | Ragan, John | R | Anderson (part) | -2.6% |
| 20 | Ramsey, Bob | R | Blount (part) | -0.8% |
| 74 | Reedy, Jay | R | Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery (part) | 8.7% |
| 34 | Rudd, Tim | R | Rutherford (part) | 42.8% |
| 39 | Rudder, Iris | R | Franklin (part), Marion (part), Moore | -9.4% |
| 21 | Russell, Lowell | R | Loudon (part), Monroe (part) | 1.6% |
| 25 | Sexton, Cameron | R | Cumberland, Putnam (part), Van Buren | 4.7% |
| 35 | Sexton, Jerry | R | Claiborne, Grainger, Union (part) | -10.9% |
| 80 | Shaw, Johnny | D | Hardeman (part), Madison (part) | -18.6% |
| 43 | Sherrell, Paul | R | Grundy, White, Warren (part) | -2.1% |
| 26 | Smith, Robin | R | Hamilton (part) | 3.1% |
| 49 | Sparks, Mike | R | Rutherford (part) | 15.5% |
| 52 | Stewart, Mike | D | Davidson (part) | 4.2% |
| 48 | Terry, Bryan | R | Rutherford (part) | 15.8% |
| 96 | Thompson, Dwayne | D | Shelby (part) | 3% |
| 73 | Todd, Chris | R | Madison (part) | -7.2% |
| 84 | Towns, Joe | D | Shelby (part) | -2.9% |
| 31 | Travis, Ron | R | Bledsoe, Rhea, Roane (part), Sequatchie | -0.2% |
| 95 | Vaughan, Kevin | R | Shelby (part) | 4.2% |
| 92 | Warner, Todd | R | Franklin (part), Lincoln (part), Marion (part), Marshall | -5% |
| 40 | Weaver, Terri Lynn | R | DeKalb (part), Smith, Sumner (part), Trousdale | 12.8% |
| 83 | White, Mark | R | Shelby (part) | -1.4% |
| 65 | Whitson, Sam | R | Williamson (part) | 9.3% |
| 42 | Williams, Ryan | R | Putnam (part) | 6.1% |
| 41 | Windle, John Mark | D | Fentress (part), Jackson, Morgan, Overton | -6.7% |
| 19 | Wright, Dave | R | Knox (part) | -4.6% |
| 14 | Zachary, Jason | R | Knox (part) | 2.5% |
New edition alert: Sexton brings pressure for special session. Now can he deliver?
This week’s print edition of The Tennessee Journal is out. Here’s what’s in it:
— Sexton pressures Lee to call session to halt COVID-19 mandates. But getting signatures for a letter is one thing, finding consensus is another.
— Lee already ranks third for special sessions and new one would make him No. 2 among all Tennessee governors.
— Opt-out provision to mask mandates posited as a way to take down the temperature.
— Census numbers start trickling in as lawmakers nervously ponder the future shape of their districts.
Also: Easley dismisses conspiracy theories about quarantine camps, WPLN -FM hires a new political reporter, the Titans launch a new PAC, and GOP lawmakers confirm they consider it their duty to tell locals what to do.
Access the your TNJ copy here or subscribe here.
Tennessee population projected to grow by 1 million over next 20 years
Source: Boyd Center
Tennessee’s population is projected to grow by about 1 million people by 2040, according to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee.
The state’s population was estimated at about 6.8 million in 2018. The Boyd Center’s projections put that number at 7.8 million in 2040 and 9.3 million in 2070.
Here’s the full release from the Boyd Center:
One in five Tennesseans will be 65 or older by 2040 and the state’s population is estimated to grow by more than 1 million people during that same period, according to the 2018–2070 population projections released this week by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research in the University of Tennessee, Knoxville’s Haslam College of Business.
About half of that growth will be in Middle Tennessee.
Boyd Center Associate Professor Matthew Harris, author of the projections, predicts that Tennessee’s population will climb 0.7 percent annually from its current estimate of 6.77 million in 2018 to 7.84 million in 2040. By 2070 that number is expected to reach 9.35 million, with a slightly lower projected annual growth rate of 0.45 percent.
“We expect population to grow more slowly over the coming decades than it has recently,” Harris said. “Falling birth rates and the fact that a very large cohort—the baby boomers—are aging both contribute to the decrease in population growth.”
Tim Kuhn, director of the Tennessee State Data Center, analyzed the data and projects that more than half of the growth by 2040 will be in Middle Tennessee, with Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, and Sumner Counties expected to gain more than a half million residents. Across the state, 66 counties will see population increases and 27 rural counties will experience decreases. Carter and Sullivan Counties in northeast Tennessee are the only urban counties expected to see slight decreases—of 0.46 percent and 0.01 percent, respectively—by 2040.
Lee names census task force
Gov. Bill Lee awaits his first State of the State address in Nashville on March 4, 2019. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)
Gov. Bill Lee has named the membership of the Tennessee Complete Count Committee, which is tasked with working along the U.S. Census Bureau in 2020.
“I am proud to appoint these leaders and appreciate their willingness to serve our state and nation in this critical undertaking,” Lee said in a release. “We look forward to working together to make sure all Tennesseans are accounted for and our state receives the necessary resources to support our growing population.”
Here’s who Lee named to the panel:
The following Tennesseans were appointed to serve on the Tennessee Complete Count Committee:
- Jeff Aiken, President, Tennessee Farm Bureau
- Joseph Butler, Mayor, Carroll County
- Karen Camper, Tennessee House Minority Leader, 87th District
- Butch Eley, Chief Operating Officer, Governor’s Office
- Brandon Gibson, Senior Advisor, Governor’s Office
- Tre Hargett, Tennessee Secretary of State
- Clifton Harris, President, Urban League of Middle Tennessee
- Mike Harrison, Executive Director, Tennessee Association of County Mayors
- Jack Johnson, Tennessee Senate Majority Leader, 23rd District
- Mary Kiger, Executive Director, Tennessee Charitable Care Network
- Mike Krause, Executive Director, Tennessee Higher Education Commission
- Tim Kuhn, Director, Tennessee State Data Center
- William Lamberth, Tennessee House Majority Leader, 44th District
- David Lillard, Tennessee State Treasurer
- Raul Lopez, Executive Director, Latinos for Tennessee
- Sen. Becky Massey, 6th District
- Anna McDonald, Chief of Staff, First Lady’s Office
- Randy McNally, Lieutenant Governor, 5th District
- Stuart McWhorter, Commissioner, Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration
- Margaret Mehary, Executive Director, Tennessee Municipal League
- Tony Parker, Commissioner, Tennessee Department of Correction
- Ryan Porter, COO and General Counsel, Jackson Chamber
- Claude Pressnell, Director, Tennessee Independent Colleges and Universities Association
- Emily Reynolds, Vice-Chair, Tennessee Board of Regents
- Beverly Robertson, CEO, Greater Memphis Chamber
- Cameron Sexton, Speaker of the House, 25th District
- Jim Shulman, Executive Director, Tennessee Commission on Aging & Disability
- Rep. Robin Smith, 26th District
- Rufus Smith, Executive Chairman, Memphis Christian Pastors Network
- Gloria Sweet-Love, President, Tennessee NAACP
- David Tomita, Former Mayor, Johnson City
- Flora Tydings, Chancellor, Tennessee Board of Regents
- Carol Westlake, Executive Director, Tennessee Disability Coalition
- Joseph Williams, Director of External Affairs, Governor’s Office
- Marie Williams, Commissioner, Tennessee Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services
- Justin Wilson, Tennessee State Comptroller
- Dave Worland, Executive Director, Governor’s Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives
- Jeff Yarbro, Tennessee Senate Minority Leader, 21st District
Spring Hill and Thompson’s Station show biggest population growth in state
The communities of Spring Hill and Thompson’s Station are experiencing the fastest population growth in the state, according to new Census tract data analyzed by the University of Tennessee. Nearly 6,200 people moved to the area between 2013 and 2017, a 19% increase.
Click on the map for a look at the top 20 population increases.
The statistics for the state’s nearly 1,500 census tracts show that 268, or 18%, showed significant population growth, while 90 tracts, or 6%, showed decreases.
Of the 20 fastest-growing tracts, 12 were in the Nashville metropolitan area. And the state capital region accounted for 46% of the tracts with population increases. The Memphis area accounted for 28 of the 90 tracts with decreases. Another 29 tracts posting population declines were located in rural areas.
