Is Campbell really leading Ogles? That’s what her internal poll says
An internal poll conducted for Democrat Heidi Campbell shows her leading Republican Andy Ogles by 3 percentage points in the open 5th Congressional District in Tennessee.
The poll of 1,622 likely voters was conducted by FrederickPolls, which has a B/C rating from FiveThirtyEight.com.
“Elections are about choices and there’s never been a clearer difference between two candidates: I’m a mom, a former mayor and a Tennessee senator who will work with members of any party to solve problems and get results for working families,” Campbell said in a release. “Andy Ogles is a Trump Republican who wants to use the government to limit our freedom and to control what you think and what you do with your body.”
Here’s the polling memo:
VOTE FOR CONGRESS
Date: Aug 12-17, 2022
Poll: Frederick Polls
Interviews: 1,622
Heidi Campbell: 51%
Andy Ogles: 48%Other Findings Among Persuadable Voters:
— Protecting abortion access will be a key issue. Among the 54% of respondents who said they could still be persuaded to support either candidate, abortion access emerged as a salient issue with a clear preference for Heidi Campbell who supports the right to private healthcare decisions without government interference. By comparison, Andy Ogles favors policy that would ban all abortion after conception, according to his website.
— Persuadable voters largely “pro choice.” 70% of the persuadable respondents labeled themselves “pro choice” and at least 9 out of ten, favored abortion exemptions for “life of the mother” (92%) and for “victims of rape or incest” (90%). Additionally, 89% opposed any effort to criminalize women who travel to get a legal abortion in other states.
— Persuadable voters who know Andy Ogles do not like him. Andy Ogles had a net -31% unfavorable rating (13% favorable, 44% unfavorable) while Heidi Campbell had a net +16% favorable rating (29% favorable, 13% unfavorable).
— Persuadable voters acknowledge Biden as POTUS. 77% of the persuadable respondents said Joe Biden was the legitimate and honest winner of the 2020 presidential election against Donald Trump. Andy Ogles attended a Jan. 6 “Stop the Steal” rally in Nashville, where he said, “The hoards of hell are here to wage war upon us.” Ogles, more recently, has called for the impeachment of President Biden, the AP reports.
— Persuadable voters have soured on Trump. Andy Ogles has already endorsed Donald Trump for President in 2024, but that’s not a choice persuadable voters in the 5th District will make. Donald Trump had a net -46% unfavorable rating (26% favorable, 72% unfavorable).
Methodology:
— FrederickPolls conducted a survey to measure voter preferences for Congress in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District.
— Interviews were completed from Aug. 12 to 17, 2022 with 1,622 likely voters in the November General Election.
— Care was taken to represent the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate based on past voter turnout statistics.
— The results of this survey, conducted via internet and phone interviews, has a margin of error of +/-2.4%.
New TNJ edition alert: Ogles rolls in 5th
The latest edition of The Tennessee Journal is out. Here is what’s in it:
— Ogles cruises to 11-point victory in Republican primary for redrawn 5th District seat.
— Martin appears to edge Smiley for Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
— State Reps. Ramsey, Weaver defeated in GOP primaries, but Sherrell and Warner hold on.
— State Senate Republican leader Jack Johnson narrowly turns back primary challenge from conservative activist Gary Humble.
— Local race roundup: Democrat topples GOP prosecutor in Shelby County, the Wamps roll in Hamilton County, and former GOP lawmakers (mostly) prevail in mayor’s races.
— Obituary: ‘Hang ’Em High’ Joe Casey, a former law-and-order police chief in Nashville.
Also: The majority female state Supreme Court will choose among six male candidates for attorney general, Mark Green and Marsha Blackburn praise Pelosi trip to Taiwan, Biden nominates U.S. attorneys for three districts, and we suggest an acronym for Hagerty’s new state PAC.
As always, access the your copy of the TNJ here.
Or subscribe here.
Winstead says poll shows him in statistical tie with Harwell for 5th District lead
Retired National Guard general Kurt Winstead says new polling shows him in a statistical tie with former state House Speaker Beth Harwell and Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles trailing in third for the Republican nomination in the 5th Congressional District.
The poll of 300 voters was conducted for the Winstead campaign by Spry Strategies of Knoxville. It has Harwell with 22%, Winstead with 20%, and Ogles with 15%. Little-known Timothy Lee got the support of 10%, while Army veteran Jeff Beierlein had 9%.
Spry Strategies was the pollster of choice in the 2020 cycle for state House Republicans, who spent $72,650 with the pollster, including $17,400 by Speaker Cameron Sexton of Crossville, $15,100 by Rep. Glen Casada of Franklin, and $11,600 by ex-Rep. Robin Smith of Hixson. The Tennessee Education Association, the state’s largest teacher’s union, spent $39,100 with the outfit in the second quarter of this year.
UPDATE: Trump Nation News reports an 1892 poll of 400 likely voters has Ogles at 30%, compared with 24% for Harwell, and 13% for Winstead. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9%.
UPDATE 2: The 1892 poll refers to the race being “a tossup in the final weeks,” meaning its likely a bit dated.
Polling website FiveThirtyEight.com gives both Spry and 1892 a B/C rating
New local super PAC running ads supporting Harwell
A new super PAC called Government of the People is running ads attacking Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles and supporting former House Speaker Beth Harwell in the Republican primary for the 5th Congressional District. The new group’s treasurer is Debra Maggart, a former state House member and lobbyist.
Here’s the transcript:
NARRATOR 1: DC money flooding into Tennessee, backing lobbyist Andy Ogles for Congress. Why? They want Congress to immediately prioritize amnesty for illegal immigrants. Amnesty. If Andy Oglels wins, he owes them, not you. Lobbyist Andy Ogles. You just can’t trust him.
NARRATOR 2: But you know Beth Harwell. She keeps her word. She cut our taxes. She’ll build Trump’s wall. Tennessee conservatives back Beth. Government of the People is responsible for the content of this advertising.
The ad appears to refer to past positions taken by Americans for Prosperity. Ogles was once the group’s state director and lobbyist.
The School Freedom Fund, a super PAC linked to the Club for Growth, is also out with new ads attacking Harwell and retired National Guard Brig. Gen. Kurt Winstead, another leading candidate for the GOP nomination.
Here’s what the narrator says:
Prices are soaring under Joe Biden. But in Tennessee, he’s not the only one to blame. As state House speaker, Beth Harwell rammed through a 28% gas tax increase. That’s why Beth Harwell is a Biden Republican. Imagine the damage they’d do together in Washington. Kurt Winstead is no better. Winstead bankrolled the liberal Tennessee Democrat Party. Winstead and Harwell. Too liberal for Tennessee. School Freedom Fund is responsible the content of this ad.
Harwell was speaker when the General Assembly passed a 6-cent gas tax increase in 2017. While she voted for the measure in the end, saying she “rammed” it through is a considerable exaggeration. Throughout most of the debate on the measure, Harwell pushed for finding ways to fund road projects without resorting to the gas tax hike, a position that angered many fellow Republicans.
The same super PAC is also running ad ad featuring spliced together commentary by Ogles at a recent candidate forum. Here’s the transcript:
OGLES: When this administration attacked Americans by weaponizing COVID, I refused to comply with the mandate. I told Biden he could pound sand. I want Washington D.C. out of Tennessee. Our education system has been hijacked through critical race theory. I’m willing to say no. This administration picked a fight and it’s a fight they’re going to get. My name is Andy Ogles, I’m fed up and I want my country back.
NARATOR: School free for those responsible for the content of this ad.
The ad ends with an image of Ogles with former President Donald Trump, who has not endorsed any of the remaining candidates in the 5th District race.
Boxes overflowing with 5th District mailers
If you live in the 5th Congressional District, you may want to make sure you keep emptying your mailbox. Otherwise, it’s likely to overflow.
Here is a sampling of mailers that have gone out to area residences this week:
Winstead dips toe into negative ads
Republican congressional candidate Kurt Winstead is dipping his toe into the attack ads that have characterized the closing phase of the 5th District race. The commercial follows a new ad from Harwell, a former state House speaker, attacking Ogles as a “tax raiser” and a lobbyist. Ogles, the mayor of Maury County, is a former lobbyists for the state chapter of Americans for Prosperity.
Winstead, a retired brigadier general in the Tennessee National Guard, starts out his latest spot with photos of rival Republicans Beth Harwell and Andy Ogles, calling them “career politicians.” Here’s the transcript:
NARRATOR: Our choice for Congress? Two career politicians or tough conservative Republican general Kurt Winstead, an outsider. Winstead’s plan for America will slam our border shut. Return a gallon of gas to two bucks. Winstead will put our country first.
WINSTEAD: If you want a politician, I’m not your guy. If you want to fighter for conservative values, I’d really appreciate your vote. I’m retired brigadier general Kurt Winstead. I approved this message.
The ad features Winstead perusing the border with Mexico and footage of gas being pumped into a vehicle. Here it is:
New Harwell ad calls Ogles tax raiser, lobbyist
Former state House Speaker Beth Harwell is running the first negative ad of her 5th Congressional District campaign against Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, calling him a lobbyist and a tax raiser.
Harwell has been the subject of a barrage of attack ads by super PACs linked to the Club for Growth and U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Here’s the transcript of the new Harwell spot:
NARRATOR: The D.C. special interest group that attacked Donald Trump is now lying about Beth Harwell. They support Andy Ogles because he’s a D.C. insider. He’s also a tax raiser. Lobbyist Andy Ogles pushed for a sales tax increase that would have hit working families hard. Conservative Beth Harwell is Tennessee tough. Build Trump’s wall, cut our taxes, pass term limits. Beth Harwell will put America first.
HARWELL: I’m Beth Harwell and I approve this message.
The ad cites a 2016 news report about the Club for Growth criticizing Trump, though the group and the former president have been on the same page numerous times since then. Ogles did back a referendum on a local-option sales tax hike in Maury County. It’s unclear why the script uses conditional language that the tax “would have hit working families,” as it was approved by voters there on a 52%-48% vote in 2020.
Ogles claimed he raised $453K in first 30 days, but collected only $247K in entire quarter
Turns out Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles wasn’t being truthful when he announced in May he had raised $453,000 in the first 30 days of his campaign for the Republican nomination in the 5th Congressional District. After missing Federal Election Commission’s disclosure deadline by more than a week, Ogles finally reported Saturday he had raised $247,087 throughout the entire quarter.
Another $320,000 came in the form of a loan from the candidate on April 15. Lest anyone think Ogles was counting the loan toward his total in May, he told a reporter at the time his haul didn’t include any loans.
Ogles raised another $17,315 in the pre-primary period and spent a total of $301,063 and had balance of $283,338. But $53,534 of his cash on hand is reserved for the general election, meaning he had a $229,804 balance for the primary.
New TNJ edition alert: Ogles files a lawsuit, but not his campaign finance disclosure
The latest edition of The Tennessee Journal is out. Here is what’s in it:
— Outside super PACs ramp up attack ads in 5th District, and one candidate takes his complaints to court
— Andy Ogles, who has been targeted for his late property tax, has now missed the campaign finance disclosure deadline by a week.
— A look at key donors to Beth Harwell and Kurt Winstead (and some who hedged their bets by giving to both).
— From the campaign trail: Todd Warner cries foul over mailers highlighting FBI raid and connections to “disgraced former speaker,” competitive primaries for two open House seats in Williamson County, and Scott Cepicky’s fight for reelection.
Also: Larry Arnn says he “will likely say it again,” John Mark Windle retires from the National Guard, Torrey Harris gets arrested, and Registry member Tom Lawless blasts the attorney general’s office.
As always, access the your copy of the TNJ here.
Or subscribe here.
