Ogles likes to call self an economist, but transcripts tell a different story
“As an economist…,” is a preface freshman U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) has been fond of using before launching into his views about the country’s financial situation. But as WTVF-TV’s Phil Williams reports, Ogles as a student took only a single community college course in the subject. And he got a C.
Ogles also claimed to have earned a degree in International Relations. But official academic records kept by Middle Tennessee State University found he had not declared a major and was a awarded a bachelor of science degree in Liberal Studies in 2007.
Ogles has said he has placed a block on MTSU releasing his transcript for fear of becoming a victim of identity theft. WTVF obtained the copy from a job application Ogles made more than a decade ago. It showed he first enrolled at Western Kentucky University in 1990 but left after the fall 1993 semester. He also enrolled at Columbia State Community College in 1991 and 1992.
Ogles transferred to MTSU in 1995. It went well at first, but in his second semester, Ogles got a D in English Pop Culture and failed Intro to Earth Sciences. Things got even worse in fall, when he failed all seven of his courses, including Political Theory, the U.S. Presidency, U.S. National Security Policy, and Child Drama Speech. He tried again in the fall of 1998, and failed those four courses once more. Ogles went back to school in 2008 and managed to get As in classes on International Law and Political Parties, while getting Bs in American Foreign Policy and Non-Western Literature.
While refusing to comment to WTVF, Ogles told the Tennessee Star he had only realized is degree wasn’t in International Relations after requesting an official transcript.
“I realized I was mistaken,” he said. “I apologize for my misstatement.”
As for the failing grades, Ogles said an “an interfamilial matter” had forced him to drop out and return home “to financially support my family during a difficult time.”
Ogles was the owner of a Franklin donut shop and restaurant and an aspiring screenwriter in 2001, according to a story in The Tennessean. Ogles told the paper at the time he had been a student of German, Russian, and Japanese languages and that he had planned for a career in international business. The transcripts show the only foreign language course Ogles took was a single semester of Elementary Japanese in 1995. He got a B.
Trump endorses Republican Ogles in 5th District
Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Republican Andy Ogles in his 5th Congressional District race against Democrat Heidi Campbell.
Here’s what Trump said in a statement released by his political action committee on Saturday morning:
As the former and outstanding Mayor of Maury County, Andy knows how to Create Jobs, Grow the Economy, Keep our Neighborhoods Safe, and Protect our Constitutional Rights.
In Congress, Andy will Secure our Southern Border, Stop Inflation, Uphold the Rule of Law, and Defend our Second Amendment.
Andy Ogles is a tireless fighter for our America First agenda, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement!
Campbell was quick to point out that Trump’s original choice for the nomination was Morgan Ortagus, who was booted from the primary. Ogles was among those prodding lawmakers to pass a law seeking to create new residency requirements for congressional candidates, but Gov. Bill Lee slow-walked the bill to have it take effect after the field had been set. The Republican Party’s executive committee then voted to declare Ortagus and two others ineligible for the GOP nomination.
“Andy Ogles wasn’t even Donald Trump’s first choice,” Campbell said. “He shouldn’t be yours.”
Heidi Campbell launches first TV ad in 5th District race
Democrat Heidi Campbell has launched the first ad of the 5th Congressional District general election campaign. Campbell faces Republican Andy Ogles in the contest for the newly drawn seat comprising parts of Davidson, Williamson, and Wilson counties along with all of Marshall, Maury, and Lewis counties.
Here’s the script of the Campbell spot:
CAMPBELL: My opponent likes to argue.
OGLES: We’re at war… political war, culture war, spiritual war.
CAMPBELL: I like results. In Congress, I’ll work with anyone to put freedom for families first. That’s the freedom to our own health care decisions. Strengthening the promise of Social Security and Medicare. Tools for every hardworking family to build a good life. That’s freedom worth fighting for.
My name is Heidi Campbell. I’m running for Congress and I’m asking for your vote. I’m Heidi Campbell. I approve this message.
Is Campbell really leading Ogles? That’s what her internal poll says
An internal poll conducted for Democrat Heidi Campbell shows her leading Republican Andy Ogles by 3 percentage points in the open 5th Congressional District in Tennessee.
The poll of 1,622 likely voters was conducted by FrederickPolls, which has a B/C rating from FiveThirtyEight.com.
“Elections are about choices and there’s never been a clearer difference between two candidates: I’m a mom, a former mayor and a Tennessee senator who will work with members of any party to solve problems and get results for working families,” Campbell said in a release. “Andy Ogles is a Trump Republican who wants to use the government to limit our freedom and to control what you think and what you do with your body.”
Here’s the polling memo:
VOTE FOR CONGRESS
Date: Aug 12-17, 2022
Poll: Frederick Polls
Interviews: 1,622
Heidi Campbell: 51%
Andy Ogles: 48%Other Findings Among Persuadable Voters:
— Protecting abortion access will be a key issue. Among the 54% of respondents who said they could still be persuaded to support either candidate, abortion access emerged as a salient issue with a clear preference for Heidi Campbell who supports the right to private healthcare decisions without government interference. By comparison, Andy Ogles favors policy that would ban all abortion after conception, according to his website.
— Persuadable voters largely “pro choice.” 70% of the persuadable respondents labeled themselves “pro choice” and at least 9 out of ten, favored abortion exemptions for “life of the mother” (92%) and for “victims of rape or incest” (90%). Additionally, 89% opposed any effort to criminalize women who travel to get a legal abortion in other states.
— Persuadable voters who know Andy Ogles do not like him. Andy Ogles had a net -31% unfavorable rating (13% favorable, 44% unfavorable) while Heidi Campbell had a net +16% favorable rating (29% favorable, 13% unfavorable).
— Persuadable voters acknowledge Biden as POTUS. 77% of the persuadable respondents said Joe Biden was the legitimate and honest winner of the 2020 presidential election against Donald Trump. Andy Ogles attended a Jan. 6 “Stop the Steal” rally in Nashville, where he said, “The hoards of hell are here to wage war upon us.” Ogles, more recently, has called for the impeachment of President Biden, the AP reports.
— Persuadable voters have soured on Trump. Andy Ogles has already endorsed Donald Trump for President in 2024, but that’s not a choice persuadable voters in the 5th District will make. Donald Trump had a net -46% unfavorable rating (26% favorable, 72% unfavorable).
Methodology:
— FrederickPolls conducted a survey to measure voter preferences for Congress in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District.
— Interviews were completed from Aug. 12 to 17, 2022 with 1,622 likely voters in the November General Election.
— Care was taken to represent the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate based on past voter turnout statistics.
— The results of this survey, conducted via internet and phone interviews, has a margin of error of +/-2.4%.
Early voting down 26% in GOP primaries compared with last gubernatorial election
Republican early voting was down 26% compared with the last gubernatorial election cycle in 2018, according to data compiled by the Secretary of State’s Office.
The difference between the current election and four years ago is that there is no competitive GOP primary going on at the top of the ticket, as Gov. Bill Lee is unopposed for the the nomination to second term. But the race for the open 5th Congressional District doesn’t seem to be generating much enthusiasm either, as GOP voting in the six counties the seat is located in has been down 31%:
- Davidson*: 10,724 votes (-51%)
- Lewis: 1,241 votes (-13%)
- Marshall: 2,560 votes (-7%)
- Maury: 5,962 votes (-16%)
- Williamson*: 14,369 votes (-3%)
- Wilson*: 6,881 votes (-46%).
(*Note the 5th district includes about 75% of the population of Wilson, 65% of Williamson, and 50% of Davidson).
Here are the early voting totals:
| County | 2022 | 2018 | Change |
| Anderson | 3,663 | 5,347 | -31% |
| Bedford | 1,893 | 3,558 | -47% |
| Benton | 1,507 | 1,752 | -14% |
| Bledsoe | 429 | 658 | -35% |
| Blount | 6,174 | 7,929 | -22% |
| Bradley | 5,186 | 8,227 | -37% |
| Campbell | 2,899 | 3,618 | -20% |
| Cannon | 1,117 | 1,240 | -10% |
| Carroll | 1,785 | 2,224 | -20% |
| Carter | 2,588 | 4,381 | -41% |
| Cheatham | 2,101 | 2,618 | -20% |
| Chester | 1,446 | 1,542 | -6% |
| Claiborne | 2,974 | 3,366 | -12% |
| Clay | 772 | 764 | 1% |
| Cocke | 3,621 | 3,692 | -2% |
| Coffee | 3,765 | 4,224 | -11% |
| Crockett | 380 | 953 | -60% |
| Cumberland | 4,078 | 5,292 | -23% |
| Davidson | 10,724 | 21,722 | -51% |
| Decatur | 1,363 | 1,308 | 4% |
| DeKalb | 1,934 | 1,296 | 49% |
| Dickson | 2,654 | 2,745 | -3% |
| Dyer | 2,511 | 2,867 | -12% |
| Fayette | 1,724 | 3,494 | -51% |
| Fentress | 2,245 | 2,692 | -17% |
| Franklin | 3,127 | 2,840 | 10% |
| Gibson | 2,109 | 3,003 | -30% |
| Giles | 2,045 | 2,681 | -24% |
| Grainger | 703 | 1,297 | -46% |
| Greene | 1,698 | 4,905 | -65% |
| Grundy | 898 | 681 | 32% |
| Hamblen | 2,077 | 3,341 | -38% |
| Hamilton | 10,993 | 11,913 | -8% |
| Hancock | 275 | 459 | -40% |
| Hardeman | 1,047 | 1,369 | -24% |
| Hardin | 1,338 | 2,592 | -48% |
| Hawkins | 2,000 | 3,535 | -43% |
| Haywood | 921 | 1,125 | -18% |
| Henderson | 1,474 | 2,862 | -48% |
| Henry | 1,857 | 3,042 | -39% |
| Hickman | 2,034 | 1,859 | 9% |
| Houston | 898 | 928 | -3% |
| Humphreys | 1,199 | 1,265 | -5% |
| Jackson | 896 | 820 | 9% |
| Jefferson | 1,663 | 3,860 | -57% |
| Johnson | 2,085 | 2,511 | -17% |
| Knox | 19,465 | 32,108 | -39% |
| Lake | 549 | 639 | -14% |
| Lauderdale | 1,723 | 1,103 | 56% |
| Lawrence | 3,342 | 2,673 | 25% |
| Lewis | 1,241 | 1,425 | -13% |
| Lincoln | 1,982 | 1,795 | 10% |
| Loudon | 4,208 | 6,851 | -39% |
| Macon | 2,399 | 3,548 | -32% |
| Madison | 4,153 | 5,778 | -28% |
| Marion | 1,010 | 1,223 | -17% |
| Marshall | 2,560 | 2,753 | -7% |
| Maury | 5,962 | 7,113 | -16% |
| McMinn | 2,025 | 3,582 | -43% |
| McNairy | 1,421 | 1,898 | -25% |
| Meigs | 742 | 1,031 | -28% |
| Monroe | 2,573 | 4,252 | -39% |
| Montgomery | 5,734 | 6,205 | -8% |
| Moore | 907 | 1,046 | -13% |
| Morgan | 1,223 | 1,771 | -31% |
| Obion | 2,189 | 3,021 | -28% |
| Overton | 1,622 | 1,460 | 11% |
| Perry | 638 | 1,030 | -38% |
| Pickett | 489 | 533 | -8% |
| Polk | 1,037 | 1,015 | 2% |
| Putnam | 3,230 | 4,883 | -34% |
| Rhea | 2,713 | 2,910 | -7% |
| Roane | 4,613 | 5,103 | -10% |
| Robertson | 2,952 | 4,680 | -37% |
| Rutherford | 10,583 | 14,531 | -27% |
| Scott | 2,340 | 2,806 | -17% |
| Sequatchie | 943 | 1,855 | -49% |
| Sevier | 1,540 | 4,538 | -66% |
| Shelby | 31,258 | 33,089 | -6% |
| Smith | 1,813 | 2,297 | -21% |
| Stewart | 1,694 | 1,715 | -1% |
| Sullivan | 3,321 | 10,312 | -68% |
| Sumner | 4,742 | 7,993 | -41% |
| Tipton | 2,852 | 3,905 | -27% |
| Trousdale | 909 | 851 | 7% |
| Unicoi | 681 | 1,574 | -57% |
| Union | 870 | 1,310 | -34% |
| Van Buren | 723 | 405 | 79% |
| Warren | 3,771 | 3,363 | 12% |
| Washington | 4,729 | 7,116 | -34% |
| Wayne | 1,944 | 1,813 | 7% |
| Weakley | 2,184 | 2,756 | -21% |
| White | 1,956 | 2,456 | -20% |
| Williamson | 14,369 | 14,861 | -3% |
| Wilson | 6,881 | 12,739 | -46% |
| Cumulative | 293,675 | 398,111 | -26% |
Winstead says poll shows him in statistical tie with Harwell for 5th District lead
Retired National Guard general Kurt Winstead says new polling shows him in a statistical tie with former state House Speaker Beth Harwell and Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles trailing in third for the Republican nomination in the 5th Congressional District.
The poll of 300 voters was conducted for the Winstead campaign by Spry Strategies of Knoxville. It has Harwell with 22%, Winstead with 20%, and Ogles with 15%. Little-known Timothy Lee got the support of 10%, while Army veteran Jeff Beierlein had 9%.
Spry Strategies was the pollster of choice in the 2020 cycle for state House Republicans, who spent $72,650 with the pollster, including $17,400 by Speaker Cameron Sexton of Crossville, $15,100 by Rep. Glen Casada of Franklin, and $11,600 by ex-Rep. Robin Smith of Hixson. The Tennessee Education Association, the state’s largest teacher’s union, spent $39,100 with the outfit in the second quarter of this year.
UPDATE: Trump Nation News reports an 1892 poll of 400 likely voters has Ogles at 30%, compared with 24% for Harwell, and 13% for Winstead. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9%.
UPDATE 2: The 1892 poll refers to the race being “a tossup in the final weeks,” meaning its likely a bit dated.
Polling website FiveThirtyEight.com gives both Spry and 1892 a B/C rating
Congressional candidate Wittum escorted from GOP fundraiser after outburst
Republican congressional candidate Tres Wittum was removed from the Tennessee Republican Party’s annual Statesmen’s Dinner fundraiser after causing a disturbance when House Speaker Cameron Sexton and Lt. Gov. Randy McNally took the stage.
According to witnesses, Sen. John Stevens escorted Wittum out of the ballroom when he started loudly berating McNally, Sexton, and others. Wittum was a longtime aide to Senate Finance Chair Bo Watson (R-Chattanooga) before taking leave to run for the new 5th Congressional District.
UPDATE: Wittum responds:
This weekend Republicans from all over Tennessee came together to celebrate the accomplishments of our party and most importantly, the future of our party. Like President Trump, I can be very vocal against the the establishment swamp — even in our party. Our state and our country are run by political establishment. I’ll stand up to my party. I’ll always stand up to the left. But in the end, I will always stand up for hard working Tennesseans and I’ll never back down.
Director of Legislative Adminstration Connie Ridley said Wittum had been informed late last month that he would not be returning to work at the General Assembly following his leave. The discussion took place before Saturday’s incident.
Sexton said Wittum’s “actions were out of character with the person we have interacted with in the past.”
”I think Mr. Wittum has had a bad week and compounded it at the Statesmen’s Dinner,” Sexton said in a statement. ”Hopefully, it was just a a one-time incident that he regrets, and we can all move past it.”
Sexton’s comments appear to refer to a social media post that made the rounds earlier in the weekend suggesting Wittum had been heavily inebriated.
McNally’s office declined to comment.
The primary election is on Thursday.
New local super PAC running ads supporting Harwell
A new super PAC called Government of the People is running ads attacking Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles and supporting former House Speaker Beth Harwell in the Republican primary for the 5th Congressional District. The new group’s treasurer is Debra Maggart, a former state House member and lobbyist.
Here’s the transcript:
NARRATOR 1: DC money flooding into Tennessee, backing lobbyist Andy Ogles for Congress. Why? They want Congress to immediately prioritize amnesty for illegal immigrants. Amnesty. If Andy Oglels wins, he owes them, not you. Lobbyist Andy Ogles. You just can’t trust him.
NARRATOR 2: But you know Beth Harwell. She keeps her word. She cut our taxes. She’ll build Trump’s wall. Tennessee conservatives back Beth. Government of the People is responsible for the content of this advertising.
The ad appears to refer to past positions taken by Americans for Prosperity. Ogles was once the group’s state director and lobbyist.
The School Freedom Fund, a super PAC linked to the Club for Growth, is also out with new ads attacking Harwell and retired National Guard Brig. Gen. Kurt Winstead, another leading candidate for the GOP nomination.
Here’s what the narrator says:
Prices are soaring under Joe Biden. But in Tennessee, he’s not the only one to blame. As state House speaker, Beth Harwell rammed through a 28% gas tax increase. That’s why Beth Harwell is a Biden Republican. Imagine the damage they’d do together in Washington. Kurt Winstead is no better. Winstead bankrolled the liberal Tennessee Democrat Party. Winstead and Harwell. Too liberal for Tennessee. School Freedom Fund is responsible the content of this ad.
Harwell was speaker when the General Assembly passed a 6-cent gas tax increase in 2017. While she voted for the measure in the end, saying she “rammed” it through is a considerable exaggeration. Throughout most of the debate on the measure, Harwell pushed for finding ways to fund road projects without resorting to the gas tax hike, a position that angered many fellow Republicans.
The same super PAC is also running ad ad featuring spliced together commentary by Ogles at a recent candidate forum. Here’s the transcript:
OGLES: When this administration attacked Americans by weaponizing COVID, I refused to comply with the mandate. I told Biden he could pound sand. I want Washington D.C. out of Tennessee. Our education system has been hijacked through critical race theory. I’m willing to say no. This administration picked a fight and it’s a fight they’re going to get. My name is Andy Ogles, I’m fed up and I want my country back.
NARATOR: School free for those responsible for the content of this ad.
The ad ends with an image of Ogles with former President Donald Trump, who has not endorsed any of the remaining candidates in the 5th District race.
Boxes overflowing with 5th District mailers
If you live in the 5th Congressional District, you may want to make sure you keep emptying your mailbox. Otherwise, it’s likely to overflow.
Here is a sampling of mailers that have gone out to area residences this week:
