Healthcare startup’s simulation finds most critical coronavirus cases in Shelby, Knox

Source: Carrot Health COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Dashboard

Shelby and Knox counties are likely to have the most critical — and fatal — cases of coronavirus in Tennessee, according to simulations by Carrot Health.

The estimates are based on scientific research¬†analyzed against the healthcare startup’s database of demographic and behavior data on every adult in the country.

Under Carrot Health’s simulations, 529,915 Tennesseans will be infected, or 10% of the total adult population. About 27,580 cases, or 5.2%, will become critical, resulting in 5,517 mortalities.

Here’s what the projections find for the five most affected counties:

Adult population Simulated critical cases Simulated mortalities
Shelby 745,963 3,445 689
Knox 361,225 2,014 402
Davidson 504,611 1,704 341
Hamilton 291,970 1,571 314
Sullivan 136,685 1,321 264

See Carrot Health’s full Covid-19 Critical Infection Risk Dashboard here. Simulations can be adjusted based on critical infection and mortality rates.

13 Responses to Healthcare startup’s simulation finds most critical coronavirus cases in Shelby, Knox

  • Avatar
    John says:

    Great dashboard and data for critical case prediction. The 10% infection rate is the default in their dashboard and can be changed by the user. The infection rate is where Bill Lee’s Department of Health is failing us. We don’t have enough data to assume any rate. And we already know about the lack of testing. Nobody knows what the infection rate might be because of Bill Lee’s dipshit administration. It will most likely vary widely by county.

    For what it’s worth, the nursing home that wasn’t provided any assistance *until* the media found out about it has a nearly 100% infection rate.

  • Avatar
    MARLE says:

    Shelby and Knox are among the highest for drug overdose deaths. Drug use (often with hepC, Aids, malnutrition) and smoking are among the conditions that put folks at greater risk for all viruses that kill like our annual flu. What was the TN death count from the 2018 annual flu?

  • Avatar
    Phil Lassiter says:


    Mobilized American Representing Liberal Leftists

    The game is up. Time to change up

  • Avatar
    Phil Lassiter says:

    Elitists. Same as leftists but we know now

  • Avatar
    LeeAnn C. says:

    So, this is not data but speculation. Keep washing your hands, don’t touch your face, avoid crowded places where someone might cough or sneeze in your vicinity.

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    Donna Locke says:

    My son lives in the Atlanta area and says an old Sheraton hotel in his county is being used as a quarantine facility. Has armed security and a parking lot full of plain white vans, and my son says it looks as though there is staging for something much bigger. Dobbins Air Force Base there is already being used for quarantine.

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    MARLE says:

    When homeless or itinerant (couch crashers) show up at the ER with symptoms and no where to isolate what does a county do with them? Can’t send them out on the street to spread the virus.

    NYC I read was exploring the idea of renting Manhattan hotel rooms (at Fed expense) to house those with ” very mild symptoms” throughout the course of their illness until they tested negative 2x in a row. Before this bright idea were these people being admitted to hospitals in NYC at first causing some degree of burden?

    The protocol in NYC hospitals for PPE was to discard the protective gear, mask, gown, splash guard after examining Each patient, 90% of patients, even with upper respiratory symptoms testing negative. Still the PPE gear was discarded. In teaching hospitals you’d have a doctor and several residents/interns all throwing away PPE each time. NOW they are irradiating it or in some way disinfecting it for re-use.

    Anyone have their family doctor examine them when they had the flu and do any of that?

  • Avatar
    Eddie White says:

    Marle, I was sympathetic to the annual flu argument early on. But this is different. This virus has no vaccine (yet), no medical protocol, more contiguous, and has a higher death rate per infections . As much as I would like to, the annual flu is no longer a comparison. I also believe the President has done a good job trying to deal with what has become a medical and economic crisis. Thank goodness for the travel bans and stimulus package. His tone has changed as he has realized the gravity of the crisis. We are all ready to move on…but there is no moving on until the virus is past the peak and beyond.

    • Avatar
      MARLE says:

      Well, actually it is a comparison. There is no vaccine, but when there is one it will be only marginally effective in the group most at risk. There is no protocol for fighting annual flu which is why we had 70K die from it in 2018. The only reason we haven’t been using current anti-virals on Covid is b/c the FDA hasn’t approved the Current anti-virals for this NEW virus… could work we just ARE NOT ALLOWED to widely use it.

      The contagion would provide a rapid herd immunity except for the fact that everyone is in lockdown. If we had done a 24/7 minute by minute countdown in 2018 EACH new stat as we got to the 35 MILLION cases and 70 Thousand deaths we would have created the same panic. But we didn’t and that made all the difference

  • Avatar
    Bob Fischer says:

    You misplaced a decimal. At the low end 2% mortality rate, the corona virus will cause 700,000 deaths if 35,000,000 people are infected on the first wave. That is why we are trying to flatten the cure on the initial infection rate. These figures are contingent on aggressive shelter at home regulations, an idea that has yet to come to fruition in Tennessee. Republicans are idiots and unfit to handle a crisis of this nature.

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