GOP early voting lags behind 2018, while Nashville surge boosts Democrats’ totals

(Graphic credit: Don Johnson)

Republican turnout has been down 10% compared with the first 13 days of early voting in 2018, while Democratic turnout has been up 3%. Overall turnout has been down 7%.

(This post has been updated to reflect turnout figures for the first 13 of 14 days of early voting.)

Early voting for the Aug. 6 primary runs through Saturday.

The nominations for the open U.S. Senate race in 2018 were settled by the time the primary rolled around, but that year featured a rough-and-tumble primary for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. This year’s campaign season has been dominated by a bitter GOP contest for yet another U.S. Senate vacancy between former Ambassador Bill Hagerty and Vanderbilt surgeon Manny Sethi.

Despite the comparative lag, Republicans have still turned out in far higher numbers than Democrats across the state, 330,580 to 194,368.

The biggest increase in GOP early voting has been a 64% jump in Washington County, which is in the heart of the 16-way 1st District primary to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Phil Roe (R-Johnson City). It’s also home to heated primary challenges of state Reps. Matthew Hill and Micah Van Huss (both R-Jonesborough). GOP voting has been down in 72 of 95 counties.

The biggest increase in early voting among Democrats has occurred in Nashville, where turnout has been  61% higher than it was through the same period two years ago. This year’s primary features Keeda Haynes’ insurgent campaign against longtime U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville) and a spirited contest for the Democratic nomination to challenge state Sen. Steve Dickerson (R-Nashville).

See your county’s turnout compared with the first 13 of 14 days of early voting in 2018 below.

County GOP change Dem change Total change
Anderson 4,380 -12% 2,236 -2% 6,653 -10%
Bedford 2,210 -33% 602 -44% 2,829 -38%
Benton 1,517 -8% 477 -49% 2,037 -24%
Bledsoe 418 -26% 114 -46% 537 -34%
Blount 7,735 3% 2,532 13% 10,270 5%
Bradley 6,710 -10% 1,132 -3% 7,921 -8%
Campbell 1,468 -56% 298 -65% 1,800 -63%
Cannon 596 -46% 137 -63% 744 -55%
Carroll 1,804 -13% 458 -35% 2,271 -22%
Carter 3,725 -9% 377 -11% 4,113 -10%
Cheatham 2,354 4% 1,117 11% 3,491 4%
Chester 1,581 11% 294 1% 2,040 8%
Claiborne 2,511 -17% 526 -32% 3,337 -25%
Clay 375 -47% 107 -72% 494 -60%
Cocke 2,491 -29% 253 -25% 2,756 -29%
Coffee 3,898 -2% 1,178 -31% 5,165 -10%
Crockett 896 1% 200 -51% 1,163 -14%
Cumberland 5,138 2% 1,133 5% 6,340 3%
Davidson 18,481 -2% 49,598 61% 68,650 38%
Decatur 868 -26% 204 -55% 1,105 -45%
DeKalb 903 -23% 415 -32% 1,366 -32%
Dickson 2,077 -17% 1,101 -16% 3,239 -16%
Dyer 1,634 -38% 431 -26% 2,088 -37%
Fayette 2,438 -21% 858 -6% 3,330 -20%
Fentress 1,432 -42% 252 -56% 1,747 -54%
Franklin 2,492 -6% 763 -37% 3,291 -16%
Gibson 1,789 -36% 476 -48% 2,296 -42%
Giles 1,953 -22% 674 -26% 2,768 -24%
Grainger 1,319 9% 184 10% 1,517 9%
Greene 3,690 -21% 591 -23% 4,330 -23%
Grundy 853 37% 259 -40% 1,175 5%
Hamblen 2,748 -12% 472 3% 3,238 -10%
Hamilton 13,107 20% 10,393 28% 24,069 26%
Hancock 311 -28% 33 -31% 355 -33%
Hardeman 1,147 -11% 967 -28% 2,128 -26%
Hardin 2,083 -14% 321 -38% 2,465 -24%
Hawkins 3,507 4% 351 -36% 3,885 -1%
Haywood 546 -48% 676 -48% 1,239 -49%
Henderson 2,217 -16% 208 -31% 2,432 -18%
Henry 2,178 -24% 718 -6% 2,953 -19%
Hickman 1,058 -36% 329 -60% 1,397 -48%
Houston 581 -34% 202 -65% 797 -49%
Humphreys 1,191 1% 507 -42% 1,722 -20%
Jackson 736 4% 326 -28% 1,236 -13%
Jefferson 3,266 -8% 483 -18% 3,782 -9%
Johnson 1,818 -23% 155 -52% 1,979 -33%
Knox 26,404 -8% 14,997 28% 41,772 3%
Lake 410 -32% 140 -43% 604 -44%
Lauderdale 1,016 -2% 701 -31% 1,811 -13%
Lawrence 1,786 -28% 473 -43% 2,334 -32%
Lewis 1,201 -9% 183 -45% 1,486 -25%
Lincoln 2,062 23% 527 16% 2,701 19%
Loudon 6,101 -6% 1,390 43% 7,548 1%
Macon 1,214 -64% 159 -69% 1,393 -70%
Madison 4,038 -25% 2,954 -10% 7,114 -19%
Marion 1,484 30% 737 7% 2,254 21%
Marshall 2,475 -3% 594 -31% 3,078 -11%
Maury 4,864 -26% 1,778 -24% 6,735 -29%
McMinn 2,751 -18% 616 12% 3,397 -14%
McNairy 1,823 4% 270 -51% 2,111 -21%
Meigs 750 -22% 188 -53% 944 -33%
Monroe 3,269 -18% 714 -36% 4,139 -23%
Montgomery 7,272 27% 3,777 -1% 11,258 17%
Moore 748 -22% 158 -48% 941 -28%
Morgan 932 -45% 197 -62% 1,155 -53%
Obion 1,901 -33% 283 -62% 2,192 -45%
Overton 974 -26% 377 -64% 1,368 -45%
Perry 767 -18% 131 -35% 917 -26%
Pickett 446 -8% 129 -41% 619 -24%
Polk 1,235 34% 453 -24% 1,858 10%
Putnam 4,451 -2% 1,221 -30% 5,704 -11%
Rhea 1,923 -31% 366 -45% 2,326 -36%
Roane 4,488 -4% 1,388 -12% 6,023 -7%
Robertson 3,425 -21% 1,126 -34% 4,595 -25%
Rutherford 14,249 6% 8,556 17% 23,011 10%
Scott 930 -62% 121 -75% 1,081 -74%
Sequatchie 863 -51% 153 -68% 1,035 -60%
Sevier 4,875 12% 872 36% 5,774 15%
Shelby 22,685 -22% 43,553 -4% 66,753 -11%
Smith 1,700 -20% 532 -31% 2,276 -22%
Stewart 1,068 -34% 267 -65% 1,343 -47%
Sullivan 10,820 14% 1,407 -16% 12,296 9%
Sumner 6,488 -14% 2,729 8% 9,303 -8%
Tipton 3,722 4% 773 -23% 4,511 -3%
Trousdale 696 -13% 277 -37% 1,216 -17%
Unicoi 1,835 23% 198 2% 2,035 20%
Union 624 -44% 190 -32% 846 -47%
Van Buren 273 -26% 76 -71% 349 -50%
Warren 2,057 -35% 873 -56% 2,975 -46%
Washington 10,795 64% 1,543 27% 12,415 58%
Wayne 1,204 -28% 123 -54% 1,348 -40%
Weakley 2,473 -3% 454 -46% 2,943 -18%
White 1,934 -16% 360 -49% 2,308 -26%
Williamson 14,539 8% 6,307 17% 21,131 12%
Wilson 10,310 -19% 3,859 -14% 14,380 -18%
TOTAL 330,580 -10% 194,368 3% 532,246 -7%

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