simulation

Healthcare startup’s simulation finds most critical coronavirus cases in Shelby, Knox

Source: Carrot Health COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Dashboard

Shelby and Knox counties are likely to have the most critical — and fatal — cases of coronavirus in Tennessee, according to simulations by Carrot Health.

The estimates are based on scientific research¬†analyzed against the healthcare startup’s database of demographic and behavior data on every adult in the country.

Under Carrot Health’s simulations, 529,915 Tennesseans will be infected, or 10% of the total adult population. About 27,580 cases, or 5.2%, will become critical, resulting in 5,517 mortalities.

Here’s what the projections find for the five most affected counties:

Adult population Simulated critical cases Simulated mortalities
Shelby 745,963 3,445 689
Knox 361,225 2,014 402
Davidson 504,611 1,704 341
Hamilton 291,970 1,571 314
Sullivan 136,685 1,321 264

See Carrot Health’s full Covid-19 Critical Infection Risk Dashboard here. Simulations can be adjusted based on critical infection and mortality rates.