polls

New poll has Bredesen edging Blackburn 51-49

Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen speaks at a rallt in Nashville on Aug. 20, 2018. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new automated poll by Republican polling firm Vox Populi Communications finds Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen with a 51% to 49% advantage among likely voters over the GOP’s Marsha Blackburn.

The poll also found Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Lee leading Democrat Karl Dean 55% to 45%.

Fifty-five percent said they approved of President Donald Trump’s performance, while 42% said they disapproved (40% said they think Trump should be impeached or forced to leave, while 60% said they disagreed).

Among other findings:

  • 25% approve of cutting entitlement programs like Medicare to balance the budget, 76% oppose.
  • 41% support abolishing ICE, 59% disapprove.
  • 44% say Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are helping the state economy, 56% say hurting.
  • 57% say the support “a single payer healthcare system where the federal government would pay for healthcare for all Americans even if it means raising taxes to pay for it,” while 43% oppose.

The poll included 43% who identify as Republican, 32% as Democrats, and 25% as independents. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight rates NBC/Marist (Bredesen +2) and Fox (Blackburn +3) with an A, and CNN (Bredesen +5) with an A-minus. The site gives Vox (Bredesen +2) a B, with a 77% average of calling races correctly.

 

Bredesen up 5 points in CNN poll

Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen speaks to reporters after at a Farm Bureau speech in Franklin on Aug. 9, 2018. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new CNN poll has Democrat Phil Bredesen leading Republican Marsha Blackburn by 5 percentage points.

The poll shows Tennessee voters evenly split on President Donald Trump, with 49% of likely voters approving of his job performance and 48% disapproving. Ninety-two percent of those who disapprove of Trump said they back Bredesen in the Senate race.

The poll found Bredesen was viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 24%. Blackburn’s favorability was 41%, while 39% saw her unfavorably. Among Republicans, 28% have a favorable view of Bredesen, while just 9% of Democrats view Blackburn favorably.

The poll finds Republican Bill Lee leading Democrat Karl Dean by 9 percentage points — a smaller margin than the 13-points found by a recent NBC/Marist poll and the 20 points in last week’s Fox poll.

The top issues identified by those surveyed in the Tennessee poll are:

  • Health care: 27%.
  • Economy: 22%.
  • Immigration: 18%
  • National Security: 10%.
  • Gun policy: 9%.

The poll 723 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The sample includes 33% Republicans, 26% Democrats, and 42% independents.

Polling website FiveThirtyEight gives CNN pollster SSRS an A-minus rating.

 

NBC/Marist poll has Bredesen leading Blackburn by 2 points

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen speaks at a forum on business issues in Nashville on Aug. 15, 2018 (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new NBC/Marist poll in the Tennessee Senate race has Democrat Phil Bredesen leading Republican Marsha Blackburn by 2 percentage points among likely voters, and 4 points among registered voters. Both are within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll found the governor’s race is far less competitive: Republican Bill Lee was leading Democrat Karl Dean 53%-40% .

Among likely voters, Bredesen was up 48-46, with 5% undecided.  Bredesen’s margin was 48-44 among registered voters.

Bredesen has near unanimous support among Democrats (97%-0%),  compared with Blackburn, who had an 86%-9% advantage among Republicans. Indepedents were leaning toward Bredesen 49%-45%.

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Poll has Bredesen with edge on Blackburn, Black over Boyd

House Speaker Beth Harwell attends a gubernatorial forum in Nashville on Feb. 27, 2018. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new automated poll by Emerson College finds Democrat Phil Bredesen with 43% support in the Senate race, compared with 37% for Blackburn. In the Republican gubernatorial primary, 27% said they preferred Diane Black, while 22% supported Boyd, 19% for Lee, and 14% for Harwell.

The survey has a margin of error of a plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in the Senate race and 6.4 points in the governor’s race, so everything is pretty much a statistical tie.

On the Democratic side, former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean revived the support of 44% of those polled, compared with 14% for House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh. The margin of error on that race was plus or minus 7.3 points).

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Dean had 39% versus 35% for Black, with 27% undecided. In a matchup with Boyd, Dean had an even slimmer edge: 36%-34, with 30% undecided.

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Poll says Boyd has pulled ahead of Black in GOP gubernatorial primary

While Diane Black led other Republican candidates in a Tennessee Star poll some months ago, the arch-conservative online website reports a new survey this week shows Randy Boyd is now the frontrunner.

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Poll finds Bredesen with 30 percent support among likely GOP voters in Blackburn’s home area

A poll of likely Republican voters in state House District 61, which includes the Brentwood home of U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, indicates 30 percent support Democrat Phil Bredesen over Blackburn in the U.S. Senate race, according to  Tennessee Star. Blackburn had 61 percent support with the rest undecided.

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Matlock poll shows tight race with Burchett in 2nd Congressional District GOP primary

Press release from Jimmy Matlock campaign

According to a recent survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Neil Newhouse, East Tennessee voters who hear Jimmy Matlock’s message want the conservative businessman to be their next Congressman. Among those voters, Matlock leads career politician Tim Burchett 41%-40%.

“This is a two-way race between Matlock and Burchett. No other candidate tested on the ballot garners more than 2% of the vote,” said Newhouse.

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Alexander joins Cruz in seeking an agenda for Republican U.S. senators

Under the headline “GOP senators need an agenda — so they’re doing a poll,” Politico reports Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander and Texas Sen. Ted have been quietly circulating an unusual “survey” of their colleagues in recent weeks asking about their level of support for dozens of legislative proposals, some of them highly controversial.

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Another Black poll shows her leading Boyd in GOP gubernatorial primary (41 percent to 28 percent)

An internal polling memo leaked by U.S. Rep. Diane Black’s campaign shows her on top of GOP primary competitor Randy Boyd by 13 points, reports the Nashville Post, close to the results of an earlier Black-commissioned poll that was labeled “bogus” by Boyd’s campaign.

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Vanderbilt poll: Bredesen ahead for Senate (but ‘not a lock’); governor’s race ‘wide open’

Press release from Vanderbilt University

As Tennessee looks to elect a new U.S. senator and governor in 2018, new polling figures suggest Republicans in those races may be facing real competition from Democrats, according to the most recent Vanderbilt Poll.

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