Internal polls give contrasting views of GOP Senate contest

Internal polling by Republican candidates Bill Hagerty and Manny Sethi show a stark contrast in the state of play in the U.S. Senate race.

The poll by the Hagerty campaign shows the former U.S. ambassador with a wide lead, while the survey by the Sethi camp has the Vanderbilt surgeon narrowly behind with 11 days remaining until early voting.

The Hagerty poll has him with 45%, compared with 29% for Sethi, and 5% for George Flinn.

Sethi’s poll has Hagerty with 33%, Sethi with 31%, and Flinn with 6%.

The Sethi campaign said its polling number have improved dramatically since early June, when he was down 27% to 11%. The poll of 800 likely Republican voters was conducted by Victory Phones between June 30 and July 1. The margin of error is placed a plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The same pollster was used by Bill Lee’s successful gubernatorial campaign in 2018, coming within 2 percentage points of the outcome of that primary.

The Hagerty poll of 651 likely Republican primary voters was conducted by the Tarrance Group between June 28 and June 30. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Hargery survey found double-digit leads among primary voters in the Nashville, Knoxville, Memphis, and Tri-Cities media markets and more than 50% those who have voted in four of the last four primaries.

28 Responses to Internal polls give contrasting views of GOP Senate contest

  • Karen Bracken says:

    Unless Mr. Flinn wants to see Hagerty as our next US Senator he needs to drop out. Can the people of Tennessee be this blind? Are they so willing to put yet another bureaucrat RINO in the Senate? Hasn’t 40 years of Lamar Alexander taught you anything????

    • Perry Aubric says:

      That is rich. There isn’t a scintilla of difference between Sethi and Hagerty. Both are trying to out-Trump the other; both are running thinly-disguised appeals to racism; both are regressive in their ideas and approaches to just about any issue you can name. One of them will be our Senator, Go help us. But these imagined difference to those, like you, on the far fringes of society are just laughable.

      What’s a RINO? Someone who is only batshit crazy on 99 percent of your right-wing crackpot agenda instead of 100 percent?

      You should be glad that someone as willfully ignorant, intolerant, mean-spirited and reactionary as you and our current President is going to win this primary and the general election. You cannot lose with wither of these clowns. You will have another office holder taking his cues from the talk radio hosts, and Tennessee will have another forgettable, ineffective disgrace to America alongside the embarrassment that is Marsha Blackburn.

      • Stuart I. Anderson says:

        It must be so difficult for a liberal like yourself to live in a state with sound finances, low taxes and the rule of law like Tennessee thanks to its government being firmly in the hands of relatively conservative Republicans. It’s tough Perry, but try to be strong.

        • Perry Aubric says:

          We had sound finances and the rule of law under Phil Bredesen and Ned McWherter. Your silly talk radio logic means nothing. Neither are exclusive to Republicans.

          And you cannot seriously contend that Donald Trump, with his record shattering deficits and rampant corruption are indicative of either sound finances or the rule of law.

          I will await your lengthy supercilious response, since you cannot abide ever leaving anyone else the final comment nor forego the opportunity to listen to yourself talk.

          • Paul says:

            Right on Perry. No doubt Tennessee will elect one of these empty suits as senator this Fall. Meanwhile, they both go about their “I’m Trumpier than Trump” shtick. That will last until Trump gets the kicking that he’s on track to get this Fall and drags down a bunch of vulnerable Republican senators with him at which point it will be “never liked that Trump guy”, “Joe Biden is going to bankrupt the country with spending”, “what about Joe Biden’s son?”, and so forth. Conveniently forgetting yet again Trump’s trillion dollar deficits, rampant nepotism paying off his incompetent family members to “govern” (haha), bailing out his companies on the taxpayer’s dime and so on.

            How funny, but not surprising, we now find out Trump and family paid someone to take his college tests….smart guy for sure, just not like he keeps claiming. Maybe promising to build a huge government paid statue garden to traitors to the country or being Putin’s pal while Russia pays the Taliban bounties on US soldiers will yet entice a few more voters his way. There’s no bottom to Donald Trump, we find out on a daily basis. For some, this is apparently “solid conservatism”.

            The bitterest pill of all will be having to say “Please Democratic Majority, throw us government hating conservatives down here in Tennessee a bone we can show the citizens”, also known as a few government handouts, despite our intense dislike of government. It shall be interesting.

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      Indeed Karen I understand your concern as a firm conservative. There is, however, a difference between Lamar (Heritage 51%) and Hagerty in at least one important respect, Hagerty is tied to Trump whereas Lamar certainly isn’t. That has to make Hagerty more conservative than Lamar which I’m afraid is damning with faint praise indeed.

      In approaching this race it all depends whether or not you are a centrist/tepid conservative or a solid conservative like myself. If you are the former then you are very fortunate in having two Establishment Republican to choose from for U. S. Senate in the Republican Primary. If you are a solid conservative the choice becomes more difficult. Unfortunately the only thing for conservatives to achieve in this race is to make it a teaching opportunity. Chairman Manny is a very wealthy 42 year old surgeon who has done absolutely NOTHING in his very successful life to show that he has the slightest interest in or enthusiasm for the conservative movement yet is now running as this fire and brimstone conservative zealot thanks to his $1.5+ million and the magic of Chris Devaney who is masterminding his campaign. Conservative should show they are not going to be fooled AGAIN. Vote AGAINST Chairman Manny by voting FOR Hagerty.

  • Sara Foxhorn says:

    I seriously doubt Hagerty is that far in the lead with the actions,
    that his campaign is taking. Reported calls to individuals with threats
    if they support Manny, No showing multiple events where he was
    expected to attend, accusing Dr Sethi of lies, & physically shoving
    voters at events, if Hagerty does not like the questions being asked
    of him. These are not behaviors of a winner or good character.

    • LeeAnn C. says:

      Ridiculous and unfounded! Ambassador Hagerty has shown nothing but respect and humility in this campaign! Dr. M showed his true colors and shoved us from being fairly neutral between the two. Then, finding his contributions to Corker and Starrett (challenger to conservative champion Rep. DesJarlais), NO contributions to Joe Carr in his challenge to Alexander, NO contributions to Trump until well past the announcement of his Senate run…He’s the same kind of unknown that Bill Lee was. I’m terribly unhappy with Bill Lee’s lack of respect for Tennesseans in that refugee resettlement decision, the multiple business killing executive orders and lack of strength to protect the capitol grounds. No thanks – no self-declared ‘outsider’ that is such a hypocrit will get my vote!

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      I don’t know about the incidents you mentioned but given his relatively unimaginative and somewhat lackadaisical media campaign, it sure looks like Hagerty thinks he is comfortably ahead. I only pray he is right!

      • Cannoneer2 says:

        What do you think about Joe Carr endorsing Sethi?

        • Stuart I. Anderson says:

          Funny you should ask. Joe and I had a conversation of about an hour about this weighty matter last Saturday and we sincerely believe that on this particular matter each of us is misguided though solid as a rock on every other issue facing America.

        • Stuart I. Anderson says:

          One should give Tucker Carlson (FOX News – 7 PM) ones undivided attention rather than replying to questions while trying to listen to him. What I should have said is that “. . .each of us regards the other as being misguided. . .”

          • Donna Locke says:

            Tucker is heaven-sent.

          • Stuart I. Anderson says:

            INDEED!!! He has the most, or second most (after Hannity) listened to cable news program but I worry about how the totalitarian left has been successful in intimidating corps not to sponsor his program. FOX keeps him on because of his popularity and as an act of defiance but I am concerned as to how long that will continue.

          • James White says:

            When, if ever, Carlson starts to hurt the deep state establishment, he will be history.

        • Just another nail in Sethi’s coffin. Sethi should find out why he left the employ of TN just to be sure before accepting an endorsement

  • LeeAnn C. says:

    I’m glad to see that Republicans are recognizing the qualifications of Hagerty versus the promises only from other campaigns. Bill Hagerty is a fine man and a hard working one. He will do a great job for Tennessee!

  • Haggerty poll is correct. Sethi in the gutter Devaney getting paid though so all good. He grins inside when he reads this post (Devaney)

  • James White says:

    Stuart Talks the Talk but does not walk the walk. He says to Not vote for anyone who has not been Previously elected (no record candidate). So he will have to vote for George Flinn. End of story.
    I like Flinn, but agree with Karen, he should drop out and allow Manney the conservative vote.

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      Not quite right. The way that should read is “He says to Not (sic) vote for anyone [running for high office] who has not been Previously (sic) elected [or has otherwise shown significant evidence of devotion to the movement conservative cause through contributions, advocacy etc]. . . .”

      It is up to each voter to judge the quality of that record. In the case of Chairman Manny this presents no problem. He wants to be a U. S. Senator having NEVER even run for office before and NEVER doing anything he can point to showing devotion to the conservative cause. What little political record he has shows him to be nothing more than an Establishment Republican hanger-on. His candidacy is a Chris Devaney creation which conservatives should reject shouting “WE WON’T BE FOOLED AGAIN”!!!!!!!

  • Missy S says:

    Sethi is not the outsider that he presents himself to be. That routine is his campaign MO, same Devaney used to get Bill Lee elected. For one thing, Sethi is very close to Dr. Bill Frist. Conservatives need to stop picking one person to be the great conservative hope without really investigating.

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      Thank you Missy!!! I just hope that there are more than two of us who can see that Dr. “CONSERVATIVE-OUTSIDER” is neither.

  • Benton Temple says:

    Hagerty’s numbers are more believable. If the race were actually close, it would be World War 3 on the tv and in the mailbox.

  • Citizens Win says:

    Hagerty deeply offends my ideals of what a Senatorial candidate must aspire too, which is truth.

    Pedaling problems over solutions and fear over hope, is not a winning strategy for a warmed over cup of tea.

  • Josh SE TN says:

    What is most frustrating for me is that the candidates did not have any public debates. I only know Hagerty and Sethi through media campaigns.

  • Rj Bissonnette says:

    Pics of Romney and his bff hagerty

    ..would sink him quick

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