GOP early voting lags behind 2018, while Nashville surge boosts Democrats’ totals

(Graphic credit: Don Johnson)

Republican turnout has been down 10% compared with the first 13 days of early voting in 2018, while Democratic turnout has been up 3%. Overall turnout has been down 7%.

(This post has been updated to reflect turnout figures for the first 13 of 14 days of early voting.)

Early voting for the Aug. 6 primary runs through Saturday.

The nominations for the open U.S. Senate race in 2018 were settled by the time the primary rolled around, but that year featured a rough-and-tumble primary for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. This year’s campaign season has been dominated by a bitter GOP contest for yet another U.S. Senate vacancy between former Ambassador Bill Hagerty and Vanderbilt surgeon Manny Sethi.

Despite the comparative lag, Republicans have still turned out in far higher numbers than Democrats across the state, 330,580 to 194,368.

The biggest increase in GOP early voting has been a 64% jump in Washington County, which is in the heart of the 16-way 1st District primary to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Phil Roe (R-Johnson City). It’s also home to heated primary challenges of state Reps. Matthew Hill and Micah Van Huss (both R-Jonesborough). GOP voting has been down in 72 of 95 counties.

The biggest increase in early voting among Democrats has occurred in Nashville, where turnout has been  61% higher than it was through the same period two years ago. This year’s primary features Keeda Haynes’ insurgent campaign against longtime U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville) and a spirited contest for the Democratic nomination to challenge state Sen. Steve Dickerson (R-Nashville).

See your county’s turnout compared with the first 13 of 14 days of early voting in 2018 below.

County GOP change Dem change Total change
Anderson 4,380 -12% 2,236 -2% 6,653 -10%
Bedford 2,210 -33% 602 -44% 2,829 -38%
Benton 1,517 -8% 477 -49% 2,037 -24%
Bledsoe 418 -26% 114 -46% 537 -34%
Blount 7,735 3% 2,532 13% 10,270 5%
Bradley 6,710 -10% 1,132 -3% 7,921 -8%
Campbell 1,468 -56% 298 -65% 1,800 -63%
Cannon 596 -46% 137 -63% 744 -55%
Carroll 1,804 -13% 458 -35% 2,271 -22%
Carter 3,725 -9% 377 -11% 4,113 -10%
Cheatham 2,354 4% 1,117 11% 3,491 4%
Chester 1,581 11% 294 1% 2,040 8%
Claiborne 2,511 -17% 526 -32% 3,337 -25%
Clay 375 -47% 107 -72% 494 -60%
Cocke 2,491 -29% 253 -25% 2,756 -29%
Coffee 3,898 -2% 1,178 -31% 5,165 -10%
Crockett 896 1% 200 -51% 1,163 -14%
Cumberland 5,138 2% 1,133 5% 6,340 3%
Davidson 18,481 -2% 49,598 61% 68,650 38%
Decatur 868 -26% 204 -55% 1,105 -45%
DeKalb 903 -23% 415 -32% 1,366 -32%
Dickson 2,077 -17% 1,101 -16% 3,239 -16%
Dyer 1,634 -38% 431 -26% 2,088 -37%
Fayette 2,438 -21% 858 -6% 3,330 -20%
Fentress 1,432 -42% 252 -56% 1,747 -54%
Franklin 2,492 -6% 763 -37% 3,291 -16%
Gibson 1,789 -36% 476 -48% 2,296 -42%
Giles 1,953 -22% 674 -26% 2,768 -24%
Grainger 1,319 9% 184 10% 1,517 9%
Greene 3,690 -21% 591 -23% 4,330 -23%
Grundy 853 37% 259 -40% 1,175 5%
Hamblen 2,748 -12% 472 3% 3,238 -10%
Hamilton 13,107 20% 10,393 28% 24,069 26%
Hancock 311 -28% 33 -31% 355 -33%
Hardeman 1,147 -11% 967 -28% 2,128 -26%
Hardin 2,083 -14% 321 -38% 2,465 -24%
Hawkins 3,507 4% 351 -36% 3,885 -1%
Haywood 546 -48% 676 -48% 1,239 -49%
Henderson 2,217 -16% 208 -31% 2,432 -18%
Henry 2,178 -24% 718 -6% 2,953 -19%
Hickman 1,058 -36% 329 -60% 1,397 -48%
Houston 581 -34% 202 -65% 797 -49%
Humphreys 1,191 1% 507 -42% 1,722 -20%
Jackson 736 4% 326 -28% 1,236 -13%
Jefferson 3,266 -8% 483 -18% 3,782 -9%
Johnson 1,818 -23% 155 -52% 1,979 -33%
Knox 26,404 -8% 14,997 28% 41,772 3%
Lake 410 -32% 140 -43% 604 -44%
Lauderdale 1,016 -2% 701 -31% 1,811 -13%
Lawrence 1,786 -28% 473 -43% 2,334 -32%
Lewis 1,201 -9% 183 -45% 1,486 -25%
Lincoln 2,062 23% 527 16% 2,701 19%
Loudon 6,101 -6% 1,390 43% 7,548 1%
Macon 1,214 -64% 159 -69% 1,393 -70%
Madison 4,038 -25% 2,954 -10% 7,114 -19%
Marion 1,484 30% 737 7% 2,254 21%
Marshall 2,475 -3% 594 -31% 3,078 -11%
Maury 4,864 -26% 1,778 -24% 6,735 -29%
McMinn 2,751 -18% 616 12% 3,397 -14%
McNairy 1,823 4% 270 -51% 2,111 -21%
Meigs 750 -22% 188 -53% 944 -33%
Monroe 3,269 -18% 714 -36% 4,139 -23%
Montgomery 7,272 27% 3,777 -1% 11,258 17%
Moore 748 -22% 158 -48% 941 -28%
Morgan 932 -45% 197 -62% 1,155 -53%
Obion 1,901 -33% 283 -62% 2,192 -45%
Overton 974 -26% 377 -64% 1,368 -45%
Perry 767 -18% 131 -35% 917 -26%
Pickett 446 -8% 129 -41% 619 -24%
Polk 1,235 34% 453 -24% 1,858 10%
Putnam 4,451 -2% 1,221 -30% 5,704 -11%
Rhea 1,923 -31% 366 -45% 2,326 -36%
Roane 4,488 -4% 1,388 -12% 6,023 -7%
Robertson 3,425 -21% 1,126 -34% 4,595 -25%
Rutherford 14,249 6% 8,556 17% 23,011 10%
Scott 930 -62% 121 -75% 1,081 -74%
Sequatchie 863 -51% 153 -68% 1,035 -60%
Sevier 4,875 12% 872 36% 5,774 15%
Shelby 22,685 -22% 43,553 -4% 66,753 -11%
Smith 1,700 -20% 532 -31% 2,276 -22%
Stewart 1,068 -34% 267 -65% 1,343 -47%
Sullivan 10,820 14% 1,407 -16% 12,296 9%
Sumner 6,488 -14% 2,729 8% 9,303 -8%
Tipton 3,722 4% 773 -23% 4,511 -3%
Trousdale 696 -13% 277 -37% 1,216 -17%
Unicoi 1,835 23% 198 2% 2,035 20%
Union 624 -44% 190 -32% 846 -47%
Van Buren 273 -26% 76 -71% 349 -50%
Warren 2,057 -35% 873 -56% 2,975 -46%
Washington 10,795 64% 1,543 27% 12,415 58%
Wayne 1,204 -28% 123 -54% 1,348 -40%
Weakley 2,473 -3% 454 -46% 2,943 -18%
White 1,934 -16% 360 -49% 2,308 -26%
Williamson 14,539 8% 6,307 17% 21,131 12%
Wilson 10,310 -19% 3,859 -14% 14,380 -18%
TOTAL 330,580 -10% 194,368 3% 532,246 -7%

51 Responses to GOP early voting lags behind 2018, while Nashville surge boosts Democrats’ totals

  • Stuart I. Anderson says:

    Not much to talk about here so it gives me a chance to ask the Trumpidians who so often contribute to this forum a simple question. “Do you really think your guy President Huckstering Blowhard wants to win in November”? I mean REALLY want to win. Not Melania, you KNOW she wants out as soon as possible, if not of her marriage then certainly this First Lady gig in order to go back to the very nice normal life she used to lead.

    What kind of graduate from an Ivy League school knowing that the left is charging him with being an authoritarian would tweet about postponing the election? Doesn’t he find the pandemic and the recession caused by it challenging enough? My Lord, what were you guys thinking when you voted to nominate this lazy, impulsive, narcissistic, nonintellecutally curious, fool?

  • Tom Coe says:

    Look, I plan to vote for Biden in the fall. But fellow Democrats let’s not be ugly in an attempt just to rile up people and sow division . We need to ac together as Americans. Not split people apart. Stuart, you’re playing Trump’s game. Shame.

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      I can see why you are voting for Biden. What does being “ugly” mean? I know what looking “ugly” is but being “ugly”? I asked a rather specific question of the people in my own party who voted for Trump whose mindlessness is going to result in the mentally impaired individual and whatever shrew his handlers inflict on us as his choice for Vice President for whom you are going to vote succeed in gaining office. You quite rightly counsel the Democrats not to do what has become their primary political strategy which is to “. . .rile up people and sow division” but in encouraging the party you plan to vote for to stop harming this country you should not swing so far in the other direction so as to advocate the extinguishing of spirited forthright commentary.

      • Donna Locke says:

        “Acting ugly,” “being ugly,” “having ugly ways” are Southern phrases.

        • Stuart I. Anderson says:

          Thanks, unfortunately I was born and raised about ten miles away from where Trump was born and raised (but under much different circumstances) but I am much more energetic, while at the same time being calmer, somewhat self-effacing, intellectually curious, and wise.

          • Donna Locke says:

            Well, I know Trump senses the country needs major correction. I agree with the tariffs and some other things he is doing, such as the pullout in Germany, and a number of his attempts at immigration enforcement. He has waffled on some things. I don’t agree with some other things he does and wants. I oppose some deregulations.

            When I have time, I want to note here a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on encouraging/enabling illegal aliens to remain in this country. This was already federal law. A number of people working for certain orgs in Nashville and elsewhere should be in jail.

          • Stuart I. Anderson says:

            Donna, I am somewhat to the right of you so OF COURSE I am going to vote for Trump because the Democrats are quite mad and out of the question. With the election about 95 days away the question is now simply what Trump has to do to win and will he do it. Right now I feel like a fan who is ardently rooting for a baseball team and its pretty late in the season and my shortstop is making error after error fielding simple ground balls.

            Biden is no longer mentally fit to be President. Trump is the incumbent. Beating Biden shouldn’t be hard let alone watching Trump fall behind by margins well outside the margin of error while the President lurches from one off-message adventure to another.

        • Beatrice Shaw says:

          These southern phrases need to go the way of confederate monuments and soon…Trump. Dems will sweep this year as I have predicted for so long and we will finally get some REAL economic recovery, peace and JUSTICE, law and order.

        • Stuart I. Anderson says:

          Donna did you know about Kris Kobach running for the U.S. Senate in Kansas? Kris’s claim to fame is as an anti-immigration zealot so the Chamber of Commerce Republicans are all united in trying to beat him. I believe the primary is this Tuesday. He’s running against tepid conservative Roger Marshall (Heritage-76%). I didn’t think Kris had a chance so I didn’t send him any money but the way the Republican Establishment is in full panic mode apparently Kris is close enough to make them sweat which makes me smile.

          • Eddie White says:

            I do not know the details of the Kansas race. However I read a recent column by Newt Gingrich that stated a Kobach win would give the Democrats the best chance to win a Kansas senate seat since the 1930’s. According to Gingrich, a recent poll found 29 percent of Kansas Republicans would support a democratic candidate if Kobach is the nominee. He also felt that losing the Kansas seat would give the Senate to the Democrats.

          • Stuart I. Anderson says:

            Of course, that’s the Republican Establishment line, NEVER vote for a solid conservative because to do so naturally causes centrist and cooler tepid conservatives to seriously consider voting Democrat. Therefore under this theory in the face of the Democrats moving left the best the Republicans can do is continue to be the feckless, craven shills for the U. S. Chamber of Commerce that they currently are represented perfectly in this case by Roger Marshall.

            Sorry Eddie, the Republican Party has to stand for something more than being a weak echo of the Democratic Party. Personally I can’t believe that the Republicans of Kansas, in the face of the clear and present danger of a Biden win, want to vote to give the Senate to the Democrats as well provided Kobach runs a well thought out campaign and we conservatives send him the financial support he needs which I certainly intend to do if he wins on Tuesday.

          • Stuart I. Anderson says:

            Funny, isn’t it Eddie that the Democrats rarely seem to worry about losing votes of centrists and tepid liberal Democrats to Republicans as they move relentlessly left.

          • Eddie White says:

            You are assigning Gingrich as the representative of the establishment. I have a lot of respect for Gingrich. He has proven to be a consistent conservative and outspoken supporter of the President. Speaking of the establishment, there is no one they tried harder to stop than Trump. There also has been no one tougher on immigration than Trump. One thing for sure, if Kansas elects a Democratic senator, Schumer is the new majority leader.

          • Stuart I. Anderson says:

            Needn’t get into the weeds re: Gingrich, we have enough on our plate as it is. My memory of Newt is that I loved him when he was the bomb throwing Rep. from GA against the sleepy Republican House leadership of (I can’t remember that colorless Minority Leader whose life Newt made a living hell). Anyway, once Newt became Speaker the media made HIS life miserable in turn, the Republicans began to lose seats is succeeding elections, and Newt began to wilt. No matter, Kansas isn’t going to send a Democrat to the Senate if Kobach gets the support of the party’s fundraising apparatus and he runs a good campaign aimed at reassuring members of the party to his left.

          • Eddie White says:

            The “Republican establishment “ is kind of a vague term, and is often referenced by the far right. As a 5th generation Tennessean, I have a pretty good idea of the Republican establishment in Tennessee. They certainly can be a force, but there are recent exceptions. Bill Lee was not an establishment candidate and Dr Manny is not the establishment candidate. So the establishment has some limits.

          • Donna Locke says:

            Yeah, I know Kris and totally support him. He is needed.

      • Lance Persson says:

        You would understand why we vote and support President Trump is you look (with an open mind) what he has been able to accomplish even with all the mindless hate that has been sent his way. I didn’t start out as a Trump supporter. Just the reverse. However when I watched what he did, rather than listening to all the baseless ramblings about him, I found he has been true to his word and has worked hard to fulfill every promise he made during the 2016 election. It would be wonderful if everyone who post on this site (hint) ended the name calling and negative Innuendos in their remarks.

        • Stuart I. Anderson says:

          But Lance, don’t you see his needless unforced errors getting into drugs he has no credentials to recommend and elections he has no authority to postpone dilutes the message he should be conveying of the Democrats aiding and abetting the destruction of our cities, their left-wing policies that will impoverish the entire middle class, etc. The American people, policy aside, are sick of having a drama queen as President.

          I’ve always believed the general election doesn’t start before Labor Day so I am not raising the white flag by any means, but right now things don’t look good and he has to turn things around. Trump simply has to be more disciplined and on message or we are going to be stuck not only with Biden, but with a Democratic Senate and House as well. Finally, we are about to elect the state legislatures that will handle redistricting that will be in effect for the next ten years. Heaven help us if it’s a Democratic blow-out!

        • More day drinking on the ole keyboard.

        • Eddie White says:

          Lance, I agree with your analysis. I did not start out as a Trump supporter, but he has done exact ly what he campaigned on. The tax cuts, deregulation, and America First policies have worked. He has been a strong supporter of law enforcement and the most pro-life president in history.He suffers because he is not politically correct and says what he thinks. Americans, including some conservatives have a hard time with that concept. He is not always a good politician. However, I try not to get caught up in the drama and focus on what the man has accomplished. I have predicted a Biden win. The Democrats are united while the Republicans run for the hills, apologizing as they run.

        • MARLE says:

          He has been horrible in fulfilling his promises. What are you talking about?

  • MARLE says:

    In 2018 we had one of the most hotly contested Republican primaries for Governor between, Black, Lee, Boyd etc. OF course it would be down in 2020 when you toss in Covid.

  • JC says:

    Democrats are going to walk into 2020 the same way they walked into 2016 .. thinking it in the bag. It doesn’t compute for them that most people don’t hate Trump like they hate Trump. The media tells tem so and they really, really trust it. It is a fatal flaw.

    he Youtube election night videos of Trump’s victory will provide amusement for years to come.

    • David Collins says:

      JC I think you are incorrect about how the Democrats are going to walk into the 2020 election. It won’t be a walk to the polls, it will be a stampede and probably the largest turnout this country has seen in years and I think the shellacking that Biden gives Trump will be equal to or greater than the shellacking that Nixon gave McGovern in 1972. I think the entire country has figured out that Trump is a pathological liar to the extent that he will tell a lie when the truth would serve him better. If you want to understand why he is such a loser, read Mary Trump’s book, if for no other reason than the hilarious story she shares about her father (Fred Jr.) dumping the bowl of mashed potatoes on Donald Trumps head when they were kids. Say, Trump is so fond of hanging monikers on people, I think I’ll just refer to him as “Tater Head Trump” from now on.

      • JC says:

        You folks said the exact same nonsense in 2016. You are not going to turn out mass amounts of voters to vote *against* something. To most people Trump is just a President, not some sort of mythic creature to defeat. Your comments on this page represent someone with real psychological issues concerning Trump. It’s funny, but likely not that common.

        So go ahead. Believe the media giving you polls with double digit Biden leads that are sampling Republicans at 24, 25%. Do you realize that in some states Republicans are adding far more new voters that Democrats ? In PA .. it’s 5x.

  • Charles says:

    When Trump loses by a huge margin, isn’t it quite possible that many Democrats will ride in on his coattails? We should have one intelligent and grounded US Senator, That means no one voting for Sethi or Haggerty. They both support the idiot in the White House. Is there another choice among those running? A Democrat for Senator would give some of us representation in the Senate, which we won’t have if we get another Marcia Blackburn.

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      Charles, IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN! If the Democratic Party were full of Bredesen’s then you would have an outside chance but that ship sailed away a long time ago. The Democratic Party of today is a hard left operation. Old line Democratic incumbents, though definitively left themselves, are getting beaten or seriously challenged for the first time in decades by socialist/social justice warriors. Voters in Tennessee see examples of the Democratic Party’s far left ideology and the vast majority turn away almost instinctively. Strategic voting considerations never enters their minds.

      • JC says:

        DING DING DING

        They thought they had a chance with Bredesen and he got stomped by 9 points.

        It is not going to be a good year for Democrats. Maybe they should do some self-reflection (they won’t). They’ve lost the working class and have turned into a party of snotty gentrifiers yelling at everyone not wearing a mask.

  • Stuart I. Anderson says:

    Speaking of Washington County I am happy to see that the Club For Growth has decided to substantially increase their commitment to Timothy Hill’s (ACU-88%) race over in the First District. As I recall, initially they were going to invest about $550,000 they are now in for $858,000. The Club is a very savvy organization so I can only conclude that Timothy is doing well in polling. With sixteen candidates in the race and Tennessee’s first past the post/no runoff system, a little over 20% may be all that is needed to win.

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      Uh-oh, just saw a poll and Rusty Crowe (ACU-82%) and No Record Candidate Diana Harshbargar are in a virtual tie then No Record Candidate Josh Gapp (who doesn’t even live in the district third) and Timothy Hill fourth, 5.7% behind Rusty. Crowe represents most of the District in the state senate, but still, at 73 it’s a bit late to begin a congressional career.

      • James White says:

        HELL , I mean, HILL NO

        • James White says:

          Well, Senator Frank Niceley blocked me on the Twitter … Guess he did not like me reminding people he voted For an Article V Constitutional Convention. not nice..

      • MARLE says:

        That age thing…beginning at 73 and being a little late to the game….is what I was thinking about Trump’s entry into a Presidential career.

        • Eddie White says:

          Trump was born in 1946 which made him 70 when he was elected. Who really cares, but thought I would add a little accuracy to this inaccurate post.

          • MARLE says:

            I didn’t say Trump was 73. I simply mentioned what Stuart had said about Crowe (who he bothered to state was 73) getting into politics a little Late. His point was that 73 was “A Little Late” and I said I thought that about Trump (his age being a Little Late, as well.

            If you’re going to be a stickler, Eddie, let’s try to make a point where one needs to be made. I did NOT say That Trump Was 73. Or maybe the problem is Reading With Comprehension.

          • Eddie White says:

            Ah,,,,I see more word games…you seem to spend most of your time explaining and defending….

          • Eddie White says:

            Wow…reading comprehension…wish I had learned that before I got my graduate degree. Of course , I always enjoyed reading people who made some sort of sense.

          • MARLE says:

            I spend nearly no time defending except from you who never quite gets it the first time around….if ever. But your only come back is to put this off on anyone but yourself. As usual.

      • Plus, Timothy Hill has been known to wear a disgusting, rotting facial addition known as a beard. Worse than voting for an Article V

        • James White says:

          HA !

        • Stuart I. Anderson says:

          I have a significant financial stake in Timothy’s campaign. Don’t tell me he is stupid enough to campaign wearing that thing! If so, that explains why he is apparently not in the lead.

          I’m a libertarian but I can be persuaded that there should be some type of legal obligation on candidates when they submit their signed petition to fully disclose whether or not they intend to be clean shaven when campaigning. This is only fair to those of us who contribute to campaigns to know before hand what self-imposed obstacles the candidate is going to place before himself before the campaign even begins. This is very much like the full disclosure obligation the SEC places on corporations when they issue stock. It’s only fair.

          • Eddie White says:

            Having spent the weekend in East Tennessee, it is hard to sort through the 16 candidates running in the 1st district. I think you have a number of good choices. You want to elect a solid conservative, but not a person who will morph into a libertarian like Massie from Kentucky. Sen Crowe and former mayor Clark look like good candidates. Clark seems to understand the cultural war America is fighting, and will be a supporter of the President.

          • Stuart I. Anderson says:

            Thanks Eddie for the report. It’s so hard for me to get a handle on this race given it’s so far away from Middle Tennessee and everything is being hidden by this awful U.S. Senate race. I wouldn’t mind Rusty Crowe winning if not Timothy Hill.

            With the retirement of two of our worst members of the Tenn. Republican delegation in Lamar (Heritage-51%) and Phil Roe (69%) I feel we have a very good chance of moving both offices double digits to the right with Hagerty/Sethi and many of the candidates in the First District. While Rusty Crowe has a long track record so we know what we are getting, I assume Clark is another No Record Candidate townie like Roe was when he first ran so I see not reason to take a chance with him when we have three out of the sixteen candidates with fine conservative records on which we can rely.

  • James White says:

    The question is, which candidate supports Vouchers and Home Schooling, Page Walley or Jai Templeton?

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      It’s really weird, Templeton received the endorsement of Dolores Gresham who is pro voucher and he also received campaign contributions from the TEA which is opposed to vouchers. Due to the TEA contribution to his campaign, the pro-voucher Tennessee Federation for Children has sent out mail opposing Templeton.

  • Taxpayer #314 says:

    The GOP is racing downhill as fast as Trump can lead them. Everything that Trump has touched during his reign has turned out to be crap. He is dishonest, corrupt and spews lies constantly. He is only interested in increasing his own wealth through his position. Barr is Trumps own personal attorney and cares nothing about the rule of law. And the GOP, including our two senators, abet all this corruption by staying silent. This country is in major trouble and it will take years to fix it once Trump is Dumped.

  • Stuart I. Anderson says:

    Well maybe, just maybe Trump actually wants to be President for the next four years after all. Congratulations to him for the long overdue, but perhaps well timed electorally speaking, abrogation of the odious Obama regulations that attempted to impose public housing on the suburbs by mandating compulsive racial diversity on jurisdictions in order to receive federal money. That’s hitting them where it hurts Mr. President, HIT ‘EM AGAIN HARDER, HARDER!!!!

    • Eddie White says:

      This was one of hundreds of deregulation’s that have happened under Trump in every area of government.

  • Taxpayer #314 says:

    Delusional!

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