Poll has Bredesen with edge on Blackburn, Black over Boyd

House Speaker Beth Harwell attends a gubernatorial forum in Nashville on Feb. 27, 2018. (Erik Schelzig, Tennessee Journal)

A new automated poll by Emerson College finds Democrat Phil Bredesen with 43% support in the Senate race, compared with 37% for Blackburn. In the Republican gubernatorial primary, 27% said they preferred Diane Black, while 22% supported Boyd, 19% for Lee, and 14% for Harwell.

The survey has a margin of error of a plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in the Senate race and 6.4 points in the governor’s race, so everything is pretty much a statistical tie.

On the Democratic side, former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean revived the support of 44% of those polled, compared with 14% for House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh. The margin of error on that race was plus or minus 7.3 points).

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Dean had 39% versus 35% for Black, with 27% undecided. In a matchup with Boyd, Dean had an even slimmer edge: 36%-34, with 30% undecided.

Among the polls other findings:

  • 20% of Republicans said they plan to vote for Bredesen, while only 10% of Democrats said they’d support Blackburn.
  • Indepenents supported Bredesen 44% to $27%
  • On a generic ballot test, Republicans lead Democrats 47% to 35%.
  • President Donald Trump’s approval rating stood at 52%, while 39% disapproved.
  • Term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam’s approval rating was 44%, while disapproval was 24%.
  • Fifty-six percent said the level of funding for local education was too low.
  • On marijuana legalization for adults, 45% said they support the change, while 41% oppose.

The poll was conducted July 11 to July 14. The sample consisted of 657 registered voters and was weighted by ethnicity, gender, party affiliation and 2016 election results. Polling site FiveThirtyEight gives the Emerson poll a B-plus rating.



13 Responses to Poll has Bredesen with edge on Blackburn, Black over Boyd

  • Stuart I. Anderson says:

    OK my fellow conservatives with the wisdom to follow the ANYBODY BUT BOYD strategy, this is the beginning of what we’ve been waiting for!!! The important takeaway here is that Diane is maintaining her position as the most likely candidate to defeat Randy! and it’s the defeat of Randy! that is our chief priority in the gubernatorial race.

    No reason to participate in early voting. Lets continue to monitor the situation until election day.

  • Timothy Skow says:

    Have expected in this Republican GOV primary …. ”1ST one to get to the low 30’s ” wins. No surprise Mr. Boyd wanted out of the last debate. Both of the politically experienced ladies are very good in a ”live and on stage ” setting. He had the most to loose. Especially with early voting already going, there’s no time to recover from a weak performance or a gaffe on a hot topic.. [ i.e… like if Abortion gets returned to the States to deal with ]

  • Eddie White says:

    I sincerely believe the Republicans will keep the Governor’s office. I think any of the 4 will beat Dean in a competitive race. I do think it will be competitive. I also sincerely believe that Marsha Blackburn is in trouble. I think her campaign has been too slow getting off the ground and she has been losing ground to Bredesen.

  • Donna Locke says:

    Marsha will make short work of Bredesen with the amount of information that can be put out.

    I drive around my county and notice that people have big yard signs of candidates relatively unknown in every respect except they’re running as Republicans. Partisans ditching the party labels and running as Independents are not getting as much traction.

    I considered running for a certain seat this year. I never could in the past because of some responsibilities that I actually still have, but I’ve had the urge. I would run as an Independent, though, and I know the problems with that. Still, I was born in and grew up in the county I live in, and I know, personally, I am far from alone in my mix of political views.

    • James White says:

      I disagree about the partisan ditching. They had the first republican primary in my county and had like a 5 or 7 % turn out. The good incumbents are running independent.

  • Jason Wallflower says:

    Wasn’t a good poll. Automated and not live interviews. Name ID tends to win these.

  • Jason Wallflower says:

    Oh, and registered voters, not likely and weighted for party affiliation. Yeah, bad poll. Garbage actually.

    • Stuart I. Anderson says:

      Every poll I have seen thus far has shown Black was the candidate who was most likely to defeat Randy! Boyd, and it’s the defeat of centrist Randy! that is what we conservatives who are determined to vote strategically using the ANYBODY BUT BOYD strategy are trying to achieve. Of course, the strategy relies on polling and the mechanics of this or that poll are subject to criticism so I believe that we should wait until election day to vote. That will give us the most time to get the most information that will allow us to cast our vote in a way that will give us the highest probability of success.

  • Lance Persson says:

    I B-LEE-VE many of you are in for an awakening…..

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